Time Series Analysis And Forecasting

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Time Series Analysis And Forecasting By Example

Author : Søren Bisgaard
ISBN : 1118056957
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 27.61 MB
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An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in detail and explain the relevant theory while also focusing on the interpretation of results in data analysis. Following a discussion of why autocorrelation is often observed when data is collected in time, subsequent chapters explore related topics, including: Graphical tools in time series analysis Procedures for developing stationary, non-stationary, and seasonal models How to choose the best time series model Constant term and cancellation of terms in ARIMA models Forecasting using transfer function-noise models The final chapter is dedicated to key topics such as spurious relationships, autocorrelation in regression, and multiple time series. Throughout the book, real-world examples illustrate step-by-step procedures and instructions using statistical software packages such as SAS®, JMP, Minitab, SCA, and R. A related Web site features PowerPoint slides to accompany each chapter as well as the book's data sets. With its extensive use of graphics and examples to explain key concepts, Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example is an excellent book for courses on time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. it also serves as a valuable resource for practitioners and researchers who carry out data and time series analysis in the fields of engineering, business, and economics.
Category: Mathematics

Time Series Analysis

Author : George E. P. Box
ISBN : 9781118674925
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 40.24 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
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Praise for the Fourth Edition "The book follows faithfully the style of the original edition. The approach is heavily motivated by real-world time series, and by developing a complete approach to model building, estimation, forecasting and control." —Mathematical Reviews Bridging classical models and modern topics, the Fifth Edition of Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control maintains a balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series. Also describing the latest developments that have occurred in the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering, the Fifth Edition continues to serve as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, classifying, testing, and analyzing stochastic models for time series and describes their use in five important areas of application: forecasting; determining the transfer function of a system; modeling the effects of intervention events; developing multivariate dynamic models; and designing simple control schemes. Along with these classical uses, the new edition covers modern topics with new features that include: A redesigned chapter on multivariate time series analysis with an expanded treatment of Vector Autoregressive, or VAR models, along with a discussion of the analytical tools needed for modeling vector time series An expanded chapter on special topics covering unit root testing, time-varying volatility models such as ARCH and GARCH, nonlinear time series models, and long memory models Numerous examples drawn from finance, economics, engineering, and other related fields The use of the publicly available R software for graphical illustrations and numerical calculations along with scripts that demonstrate the use of R for model building and forecasting Updates to literature references throughout and new end-of-chapter exercises Streamlined chapter introductions and revisions that update and enhance the exposition Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition is a valuable real-world reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, finance, and related fields. The book is also an excellent textbook for beginning graduate-level courses in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics.
Category: Mathematics

Introduction To Time Series Analysis And Forecasting

Author : Douglas C. Montgomery
ISBN : 9781118211502
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 63.14 MB
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An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts. Seven easy-to-follow chapters provide intuitive explanations and in-depth coverage of key forecasting topics, including: Regression-based methods, heuristic smoothing methods, and general time series models Basic statistical tools used in analyzing time series data Metrics for evaluating forecast errors and methods for evaluating and tracking forecasting performance over time Cross-section and time series regression data, least squares and maximum likelihood model fitting, model adequacy checking, prediction intervals, and weighted and generalized least squares Exponential smoothing techniques for time series with polynomial components and seasonal data Forecasting and prediction interval construction with a discussion on transfer function models as well as intervention modeling and analysis Multivariate time series problems, ARCH and GARCH models, and combinations of forecasts The ARIMA model approach with a discussion on how to identify and fit these models for non-seasonal and seasonal time series The intricate role of computer software in successful time series analysis is acknowledged with the use of Minitab, JMP, and SAS software applications, which illustrate how the methods are imple-mented in practice. An extensive FTP site is available for readers to obtain data sets, Microsoft Office PowerPoint slides, and selected answers to problems in the book. Requiring only a basic working knowledge of statistics and complete with exercises at the end of each chapter as well as examples from a wide array of fields, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is an ideal text for forecasting and time series courses at the advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate levels. The book also serves as an indispensable reference for practitioners in business, economics, engineering, statistics, mathematics, and the social, environmental, and life sciences.
Category: Mathematics

Introduction To Time Series Analysis And Forecasting

Author : Robert A. Yaffee
ISBN : 9780127678702
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 34.41 MB
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Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages--SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. To enhance the book's value as a teaching tool, the data sets and programs used in the book are made available on the Academic Press Web site. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques. Key Features * Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting * Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology * Free Web site contains the data used in most chapters, facilitating learning * Math level pitched to general social science usage * Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels
Category: Mathematics

Applied Time Series

Author : T. M. J. A. Cooray
ISBN : UCSC:32106019498564
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 27.92 MB
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Applied Time Series: Analysis and Forecasting provides the theories, methods and tools for necessary modeling and forecasting of time series. It includes a complete theoretical development of univariate time series models with each step demonstrated with an analysis of real time data series. The result is clear presentation, quantified subjective judgment derived from selected methods applied to time series observations.
Category: Mathematics

Time Series Analysis And Adjustment

Author : Haim Y Bleikh
ISBN : 9781472400727
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 56.69 MB
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In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.
Category: Business & Economics

Time Series Analysis And Forecasting Using Python R

Author : Jeffrey Strickland
ISBN : 1716451132
Genre : Computers
File Size : 44.55 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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This book full-color textbook assumes a basic understanding of statistics and mathematical or statistical modeling. Although a little programming experience would be nice, but it is not required. We use current real-world data, like COVID-19, to motivate times series analysis have three thread problems that appear in nearly every chapter: "Got Milk?", "Got a Job?" and "Where's the Beef?" Chapter 1: Loading data in the R-Studio and Jupyter Notebook environments. Chapter 2: Components of a times series and decomposition Chapter 3: Moving averages (MAs) and COVID-19 Chapter 4: Simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt's and Holt-Winter's double and triple exponential smoothing Chapter 5: Python programming in Jupyter Notebook for the concepts covered in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 Chapter 6: Stationarity and differencing, including unit root tests. Chapter 7: ARIMA and SARMIA (seasonal) modeling and forecast development Chapter 8: ARIMA modeling using Python Chapter 9: Structural models and analysis using unobserved component models (UCMs) Chapter 10: Advanced time series analysis, including time-series interventions, exogenous regressors, and vector autoregressive (VAR) processes.
Category: Computers

Practical Time Series Analysis

Author : Aileen Nielsen
ISBN : 9781492041627
Genre : Computers
File Size : 27.49 MB
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Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance
Category: Computers

Forecasting And Time Series Analysis

Author : Douglas C. Montgomery
ISBN : UOM:39015017905954
Genre : Science
File Size : 67.27 MB
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This practical, user-oriented second edition describes how to use statistical modeling and analysis methods for forecasting and prediction problems. Statistical and mathematical terms are introduced only as they are needed, and every effort has been made to keep the mathematical and statistical prerequisites to a minimum. Every technique that is introduced is illustrated by fully worked numerical examples. Not only is the coverage of traditional forecasting methods greatly expanded in this new edition, but a number of new techniques and methods are covered as well.
Category: Science

Hands On Time Series Analysis With R

Author : Rami Krispin
ISBN : 9781788624046
Genre : Computers
File Size : 25.42 MB
Format : PDF, Docs
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Build efficient forecasting models using traditional time series models and machine learning algorithms. Key Features Perform time series analysis and forecasting using R packages such as Forecast and h2o Develop models and find patterns to create visualizations using the TSstudio and plotly packages Master statistics and implement time-series methods using examples mentioned Book Description Time series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time series analysis with R and lays the foundations you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data and extract meaningful information from it using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R such as the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The later section of the book delves into traditional forecasting models such as time series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also cover advanced time series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have the skills needed to explore your data, identify patterns, and build a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods. What you will learn Visualize time series data and derive better insights Explore auto-correlation and master statistical techniques Use time series analysis tools from the stats, TSstudio, and forecast packages Explore and identify seasonal and correlation patterns Work with different time series formats in R Explore time series models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and more Evaluate high-performance forecasting solutions Who this book is for Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R is ideal for data analysts, data scientists, and all R developers who are looking to perform time series analysis to predict outcomes effectively. A basic knowledge of statistics is required; some knowledge in R is expected, but not mandatory.
Category: Computers

Spatial Time Series

Author : Robert John Bennett
ISBN : UOM:39015009937874
Genre : Control theory
File Size : 41.45 MB
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Category: Control theory

Time Series Analysis

Author : Jonathan D. Cryer
ISBN : 9780387759593
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 89.5 MB
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This book has been developed for a one-semester course usually attended by students in statistics, economics, business, engineering, and quantitative social sciences. A unique feature of this edition is its integration with the R computing environment. Basic applied statistics is assumed through multiple regression. Calculus is assumed only to the extent of minimizing sums of squares but a calculus-based introduction to statistics is necessary for a thorough understanding of some of the theory. Actual time series data drawn from various disciplines are used throughout the book to illustrate the methodology.
Category: Mathematics

Advanced Time Series Data Analysis

Author : I. Gusti Ngurah Agung
ISBN : 9781119504719
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 81.96 MB
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Introduces the latest developments in forecasting in advanced quantitative data analysis This book presents advanced univariate multiple regressions, which can directly be used to forecast their dependent variables, evaluate their in-sample forecast values, and compute forecast values beyond the sample period. Various alternative multiple regressions models are presented based on a single time series, bivariate, and triple time-series, which are developed by taking into account specific growth patterns of each dependent variables, starting with the simplest model up to the most advanced model. Graphs of the observed scores and the forecast evaluation of each of the models are offered to show the worst and the best forecast models among each set of the models of a specific independent variable. Advanced Time Series Data Analysis: Forecasting Using EViews provides readers with a number of modern, advanced forecast models not featured in any other book. They include various interaction models, models with alternative trends (including the models with heterogeneous trends), and complete heterogeneous models for monthly time series, quarterly time series, and annually time series. Each of the models can be applied by all quantitative researchers. Presents models that are all classroom tested Contains real-life data samples Contains over 350 equation specifications of various time series models Contains over 200 illustrative examples with special notes and comments Applicable for time series data of all quantitative studies Advanced Time Series Data Analysis: Forecasting Using EViews will appeal to researchers and practitioners in forecasting models, as well as those studying quantitative data analysis. It is suitable for those wishing to obtain a better knowledge and understanding on forecasting, specifically the uncertainty of forecast values.
Category: Mathematics

Forecasting Structural Time Series Models And The Kalman Filter

Author : Andrew C. Harvey
ISBN : 0521405734
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 56.16 MB
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A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Category: Business & Economics

Time Series With Python

Author : Bob Mather
ISBN : 0648783081
Genre :
File Size : 54.17 MB
Format : PDF
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Are you looking to learn more about Time Series, but struggling to find them in traditional Data Science textbooks? This book is your answer. Time Series is an exciting and important part of Data Analysis. Time Series Data is more readily available than most forms of data and answers questions that cross-sectional data struggle to do. It also has more real world application in the prediction of future events. However it is not generally found in a traditional data science toolkit. There is also limited centralized resources on the applications of Time Series, especially using traditional programming languages such as Python. This book solves all these problems, and more. It starts off with basic concepts in Time Series, and switches to more advanced topics. It shows you how to set up Python from start, and goes through over 20 examples of applying both simple and advanced Time Series concepts with Python code.
Category:

Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting

Author : Peter J. Brockwell
ISBN : 9780387216577
Genre : Computers
File Size : 67.44 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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This is an introduction to time series that emphasizes methods and analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills. Statisticians and students will learn the latest methods in time series and forecasting, along with modern computational models and algorithms.
Category: Computers

A Handbook Of Time Series Analysis Signal Processing And Dynamics

Author : D. S. G. Pollock
ISBN : 9780125609906
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 31.95 MB
Format : PDF
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The aim of this book is to serve as a graduate text and reference in time series analysis and signal processing, two closely related subjects that are the concern of a wide range of disciplines, such as statistics, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering and physics. The book provides a CD-ROM containing codes in PASCAL and C for the computer procedures printed in the book. It also furnishes a complete program devoted to the statistical analysis of time series, which will be attractive to a wide range of academics working in diverse mathematical disciplines.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Applied Time Series Analysis

Author : Terence C. Mills
ISBN : 9780128131176
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 70.87 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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Written for those who need an introduction, Applied Time Series Analysis reviews applications of the popular econometric analysis technique across disciplines. Carefully balancing accessibility with rigor, it spans economics, finance, economic history, climatology, meteorology, and public health. Terence Mills provides a practical, step-by-step approach that emphasizes core theories and results without becoming bogged down by excessive technical details. Including univariate and multivariate techniques, Applied Time Series Analysis provides data sets and program files that support a broad range of multidisciplinary applications, distinguishing this book from others. Focuses on practical application of time series analysis, using step-by-step techniques and without excessive technical detail Supported by copious disciplinary examples, helping readers quickly adapt time series analysis to their area of study Covers both univariate and multivariate techniques in one volume Provides expert tips on, and helps mitigate common pitfalls of, powerful statistical software including EVIEWS and R Written in jargon-free and clear English from a master educator with 30 years+ experience explaining time series to novices Accompanied by a microsite with disciplinary data sets and files explaining how to build the calculations used in examples
Category: Business & Economics