THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE

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The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9781101595954
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 52.59 MB
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"One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Category: Political Science

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes

Author :
ISBN : 1623150523
Genre : Bayesian statistical decision theory
File Size : 73.15 MB
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.
Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory

Introduction To Random Signals And Noise

Author : Wim C. Van Etten
ISBN : 9780470024126
Genre : Science
File Size : 26.2 MB
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Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.
Category: Science

Wiley Survey Of Instrumentation And Measurement

Author : Stephen A. Dyer
ISBN : 0471221651
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 88.48 MB
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In-depth coverage of instrumentation and measurement from theWiley Encyclopedia of Electrical and Electronics Engineering The Wiley Survey of Instrumentation andMeasurement features 97 articles selected from the WileyEncyclopedia of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, the onetruly indispensable reference for electrical engineers. Together,these articles provide authoritative coverage of the importanttopic of instrumentation and measurement. This collection also, forthe first time, makes this information available to those who donot have access to the full 24-volume encyclopedia. The entireencyclopedia is available online-visitwww.interscience.wiley.com/EEEE for more details. Articles are grouped under sections devoted to the major topicsin instrumentation and measurement, including: Sensors and transducers Signal conditioning General-purpose instrumentation and measurement Electrical variables Electromagnetic variables Mechanical variables Time, frequency, and phase Noise and distortion Power and energy Instrumentation for chemistry and physics Interferometers and spectrometers Microscopy Data acquisition and recording Testing methods The articles collected here provide broad coverage of thisimportant subject and make the Wiley Survey ofInstrumentation and Measurement a vital resource forresearchers and practitioners alike.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Advanced Digital Signal Processing And Noise Reduction

Author : Saeed V. Vaseghi
ISBN : 9780470740163
Genre : Science
File Size : 51.94 MB
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Digital signal processing plays a central role in the development of modern communication and information processing systems. The theory and application of signal processing is concerned with the identification, modelling and utilisation of patterns and structures in a signal process. The observation signals are often distorted, incomplete and noisy and therefore noise reduction, the removal of channel distortion, and replacement of lost samples are important parts of a signal processing system. The fourth edition of Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction updates and extends the chapters in the previous edition and includes two new chapters on MIMO systems, Correlation and Eigen analysis and independent component analysis. The wide range of topics covered in this book include Wiener filters, echo cancellation, channel equalisation, spectral estimation, detection and removal of impulsive and transient noise, interpolation of missing data segments, speech enhancement and noise/interference in mobile communication environments. This book provides a coherent and structured presentation of the theory and applications of statistical signal processing and noise reduction methods. Two new chapters on MIMO systems, correlation and Eigen analysis and independent component analysis Comprehensive coverage of advanced digital signal processing and noise reduction methods for communication and information processing systems Examples and applications in signal and information extraction from noisy data Comprehensive but accessible coverage of signal processing theory including probability models, Bayesian inference, hidden Markov models, adaptive filters and Linear prediction models Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction is an invaluable text for postgraduates, senior undergraduates and researchers in the fields of digital signal processing, telecommunications and statistical data analysis. It will also be of interest to professional engineers in telecommunications and audio and signal processing industries and network planners and implementers in mobile and wireless communication communities.
Category: Science

Signals And Systems In Biomedical Engineering

Author : Suresh R. Devasahayam
ISBN : 9781461453321
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 54.72 MB
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The use of digital signal processing is ubiquitous in the field of physiology and biomedical engineering. The application of such mathematical and computational tools requires a formal or explicit understanding of physiology. Formal models and analytical techniques are interlinked in physiology as in any other field. This book takes a unitary approach to physiological systems, beginning with signal measurement and acquisition, followed by signal processing, linear systems modelling, and computer simulations. The signal processing techniques range across filtering, spectral analysis and wavelet analysis. Emphasis is placed on fundamental understanding of the concepts as well as solving numerical problems. Graphs and analogies are used extensively to supplement the mathematics. Detailed models of nerve and muscle at the cellular and systemic levels provide examples for the mathematical methods and computer simulations. Several of the models are sufficiently sophisticated to be of value in understanding real world issues like neuromuscular disease. This second edition features expanded problem sets and a link to extra downloadable material.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Mmse Based Algorithm For Joint Signal Detection Channel And Noise Variance Estimation For Ofdm Systems

Author : Vincent Savaux
ISBN : 9781119007906
Genre : Computers
File Size : 61.11 MB
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This book presents an algorithm for the detection of an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal in a cognitive radio context by means of a joint and iterative channel and noise estimation technique. Based on the minimum mean square criterion, it performs an accurate detection of a user in a frequency band, by achieving a quasi-optimal channel and noise variance estimation if the signal is present, and by estimating the noise level in the band if the signal is absent. Organized into three chapters, the first chapter provides the background against which the system model is presented, as well as some basics concerning the channel statistics and the transmission of an OFDM signal over a multipath channel. In Chapter 2, the proposed iterative algorithm for the noise variance and the channel estimation is detailed, and in Chapter 3, an application of the algorithm for the free-band detection is proposed. In both Chapters 2 and 3, the principle of the algorithm is presented in a simple way, and more elaborate developments are also provided. The different assumptions and assertions in the developments and the performance of the proposed method are validated through simulations, and compared to methods of the scientific literature
Category: Computers

Transducers And Arrays For Underwater Sound

Author : Charles Sherman
ISBN : 9780387331393
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 79.84 MB
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The most comprehensive book on electroacoustic transducers and arrays for underwater sound Includes transducer modeling techniques and transducer designs that are currently in use Includes discussion and analysis of array interaction and nonlinear effects in transducers Contains extensive data in figures and tables needed in transducer and array design Written at a level that will be useful to students as well as to practicing engineers and scientists
Category: Technology & Engineering

Biosignal And Medical Image Processing Third Edition

Author : John L. Semmlow
ISBN : 9781466567375
Genre : Medical
File Size : 56.72 MB
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Written specifically for biomedical engineers, Biosignal and Medical Image Processing, Third Edition provides a complete set of signal and image processing tools, including diagnostic decision-making tools, and classification methods. Thoroughly revised and updated, it supplies important new material on nonlinear methods for describing and classifying signals, including entropy-based methods and scaling methods. A full set of PowerPoint slides covering the material in each chapter and problem solutions is available to instructors for download. See What’s New in the Third Edition: Two new chapters on nonlinear methods for describing and classifying signals. Additional examples with biological data such as EEG, ECG, respiration and heart rate variability Nearly double the number of end-of-chapter problems MATLAB® incorporated throughout the text Data "cleaning" methods commonly used in such areas as heart rate variability studies The text provides a general understanding of image processing sufficient to allow intelligent application of the concepts, including a description of the underlying mathematical principals when needed. Throughout this textbook, signal and image processing concepts are implemented using the MATLAB® software package and several of its toolboxes. The challenge of covering a broad range of topics at a useful, working depth is motivated by current trends in biomedical engineering education, particularly at the graduate level where a comprehensive education must be attained with a minimum number of courses. This has led to the development of "core" courses to be taken by all students. This text was written for just such a core course. It is also suitable for an upper-level undergraduate course and would also be of value for students in other disciplines that would benefit from a working knowledge of signal and image processing.
Category: Medical

Classical Semi Classical And Quantum Noise

Author : Leon Cohen
ISBN : 9781441966247
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 74.33 MB
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David Middleton was a towering figure of 20th Century engineering and science and one of the founders of statistical communication theory. During the second World War, the young David Middleton, working with Van Fleck, devised the notion of the matched filter, which is the most basic method used for detecting signals in noise. Over the intervening six decades, the contributions of Middleton have become classics. This collection of essays by leading scientists, engineers and colleagues of David are in his honor and reflect the wide influence that he has had on many fields. Also included is the introduction by Middleton to his forthcoming book, which gives a wonderful view of the field of communication, its history and his own views on the field that he developed over the past 60 years. Focusing on classical noise modeling and applications, Classical, Semi-Classical and Quantum Noise includes coverage of statistical communication theory, non-stationary noise, molecular footprints, noise suppression, Quantum error correction, and other related topics.
Category: Technology & Engineering