The Flaw Of Averages

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The Flaw Of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage
ISBN : 9781118073759
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 36.75 MB
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Reveals how and why personal finance and business plans based on mathematical assumptions are often wrong and how probability management can help remedy problems with communicating uncertainty and risk.
Category: Business & Economics

The Flaw Of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage
ISBN : 0471381977
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 20.61 MB
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A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
Category: Business & Economics

The Leading Edge

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015072618682
Genre : Geophysics
File Size : 55.88 MB
Format : PDF
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Category: Geophysics

Or Ms Today

Author :
ISBN : IND:30000120307271
Genre : Operations research
File Size : 25.63 MB
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Category: Operations research

Risk

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015048090313
Genre : Risk management
File Size : 35.3 MB
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Category: Risk management

Stanford Bulletin

Author :
ISBN : STANFORD:36105111435116
Genre :
File Size : 27.50 MB
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Category:

Current Practices And Future Trends In Deep Foundations

Author : Jerry A. DiMaggio
ISBN : 0784407436
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 55.65 MB
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GSP 125 contains 26 papers on state-of-the-art developments in deep foundation collected in honor of George G. Goble, Ph.D., P.E.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Strategy Business

Author :
ISBN : CORNELL:31924107859641
Genre : Business planning
File Size : 44.76 MB
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Category: Business planning

Data Communications

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015030241163
Genre : Electronic data processing
File Size : 74.93 MB
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Category: Electronic data processing

Fracture Mechanics

Author :
ISBN : UCSD:31822001204833
Genre : Fracture mechanics
File Size : 51.1 MB
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Category: Fracture mechanics

Decision Making With Insight

Author : Sam L. Savage
ISBN : UOM:39076002356249
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 84.25 MB
Format : PDF
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Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.
Category: Business & Economics