Scenario Thinking

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Scenario Thinking

Author : R. Bradley MacKay
ISBN : 9781108664318
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 73.53 MB
Format : PDF
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This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.
Category: Business & Economics

Scenario Thinking

Author : George Cairns
ISBN : 9783319490670
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 65.98 MB
Format : PDF
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Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development. What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often. Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings. Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions. This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.
Category: Business & Economics

Scenario Thinking

Author : G. Wright
ISBN : 9780230306899
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 73.82 MB
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Presents new methods in scenario thinking, based on a mix of high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The authors describe the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provide detailed 'road maps' on how to implement them - together with practical examples of their application.
Category: Business & Economics

Idon Scenario Thinking

Author : Miriam Galt
ISBN : 0953042103
Genre : Decision making
File Size : 79.94 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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Category: Decision making

Scenario Planning In Organizations

Author : Thomas J. Chermack
ISBN : 9781605099088
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 27.75 MB
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Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. “This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”. -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
Category: Business & Economics

The Scenario Planning Handbook

Author : Bill Ralston
ISBN : UCLA:L0096824107
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 54.98 MB
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The newest technique for strategic planning and execution, scenario planning is the only technique that takes into account the many uncertainties that are the reality of today's world. The central theme of SCENARIO PLANNING HANDBOOK is that this uncertainty and discontinuous change characterizing the marketplace make it mandatory that companies change the way they think about and plan for the future. Scenario-based strategy both confronts and deals with uncertainty and leads to a strategy that is focused but resilient, specific but flexible. Extremely practical, this detailed handbook for developing and using scenarios guides readers step by step through the sequence and intricacies of a scenario project. It explains what scenarios are and are not, why they are needed, as well as their uses and benefits. It also deals with cultural and organizational changes that an organization must undertake to maximize the benefits of scenario-based planning. This resourceful handbook is an excellent resource for CEOs, COOs, and general managers responsible for long-term strategy development.
Category: Business & Economics

Transformative Scenario Planning

Author : Adam Kahane
ISBN : 9781609944902
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 67.50 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
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Getting Unstuck People who are trying to solve tough economic, social, and environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They can’t solve their problems in their current context, which is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They can’t transform this context on their own—it’s too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And the people whose cooperation they need don’t understand or agree with or trust them or each other. Transformative scenario planning is a powerful new methodology for dealing with these challenges. It enables us to transform ourselves and our relationships and thereby the systems of which we are a part. At a time when divisions within and among societies are producing so many people to get stuck and to suffer, it offers hope—and a proven approach—for moving forward together.
Category: Business & Economics

Scenario Planning For Libraries

Author : Joan Giesecke
ISBN : 083893482X
Genre : Language Arts & Disciplines
File Size : 30.52 MB
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Use this comprehensive guide to write the "story" of your library.
Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

What If

Author : Diana Scearce
ISBN : 0975924109
Genre : Creative thinking
File Size : 27.6 MB
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Category: Creative thinking

The Sixth Sense

Author : Kees van der Heijden
ISBN : 0470687290
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 26.99 MB
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This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future.
Category: Business & Economics

Thinking In New Boxes

Author : Luc De Brabandere
ISBN : 9780679644361
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 77.42 MB
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When BIC, manufacturer of disposable ballpoint pens, wanted to grow, it looked for an idea beyond introducing new sizes and ink colors. Someone suggested lighters. LIGHTERS? With an idea that seemed crazy at first, that bright executive, instead of seeing BIC as a pen company—a business in the PEN “box”—figured out that there was growth to be found in the DISPOSABLE “box.” And he was right. Now there are disposable BIC lighters, razors, even phones. The company opened its door to a host of opportunities. IT INVENTED A NEW BOX. Your business can, too. And simply thinking “out of the box” is not the answer. True ingenuity needs structure, hard analysis, and bold brainstorming. It needs to start THINKING IN NEW BOXES —a revolutionary process for sustainable creativity from two strategic innovation experts from The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). To make sense of the world, we all rely on assumptions, on models—on what Luc de Brabandere and Alan Iny call “boxes.” If we are unaware of our boxes, they can blind us to risks and opportunities. This innovative book challenges everything you thought you knew about business creativity by breaking creativity down into five steps: • Doubt everything. Challenge your current perspectives. • Probe the possible. Explore options around you. • Diverge. Generate many new and exciting ideas, even if they seem absurd. • Converge. Evaluate and select the ideas that will drive breakthrough results. • Reevaluate. Relentlessly. No idea is a good idea forever. And did we mention Reevaluate? Relentlessly. Creativity is paramount if you are to thrive in a time of accelerating change. Replete with practical and potent creativity tools, and featuring fascinating case studies from BIC to Ford to Trader Joe’s, Thinking in New Boxes will help you and your company overcome missed opportunities and stay ahead of the curve. This book isn’t a simpleminded checklist. This is Thinking in New Boxes. And it will be fun. (We promise.) Praise for Thinking in New Boxes “Excellent . . . While focusing on business creativity, the principles in this book apply anywhere change is needed and will be of interest to anyone seeking to reinvent herself.”—Blogcritics “Thinking in New Boxes is a five-step guide that leverages the authors’ deep understanding of human nature to enable readers to overcome their limitations and both imagine and create their own futures. This book is a must-read for people living and working in today’s competitive environment.”—Ray O. Johnson, Ph.D., chief technology officer, Lockheed Martin “Thinking In New Boxes discusses what I believe to be one of the fundamental shifts all companies/brands need to be thinking about: how to think creatively, in order to innovate and differentiate our brands. We need to thrive and lead in a world of accelerating change and this book challenges us to even greater creativity in our thinking. One of the best business books I’ve read in a long time.”—Jennifer Fox, CEO, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts “As impressive as teaching new tricks to old dogs, Thinking in New Boxes is both inspirational and practical—a comprehensive, step-by-step guide to sharpening one’s wits in order to harness creativity in the workplace.”—Peter Gelb, general manager, Metropolitan Opera From the Hardcover edition.
Category: Business & Economics

Scenario Thinking

Author : George Wright
ISBN : 9780230271562
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 23.1 MB
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Presents new methods in scenario thinking, based on a mix of high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The authors describe the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provide detailed 'road maps' on how to implement them – together with practical examples of their application.
Category: Business & Economics

How Good Thinking Makes Good Lives 100 Scenarios For Creative And Critical Thinking

Author : Charles Png
ISBN : 9789810917166
Genre : Self-Help
File Size : 31.42 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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This book is about Good Thinking. By applying the 8 SCENARIO Principles, readers will be able to develop their critical and creative thinking abilities. The belief that a good thinking model makes for a good life has prompted us to write a book for those who aspire to be better thinkers. This book is for everyone who believes that through good thinking, good lives are made. These principles will enable you to effectively think through critical and creative challenges. This will allow you to think more effectively and creatively. You will be amazed by the changes in your life when you think more clearly. These scenarios are written to allow you to do the following: 1. As a facilitator, you will be able to use these real-life scenarios to have discussions with your participants. These scenarios will help your participants to use the tools provided to think more critically and creatively. 2. As an educator, you will be able to use these authentic scenarios to reflect on your own experiences and to apply these thinking principles with your students. Teach them the thinking tools. 3. As a reader, you will be able to use these relevant scenarios to determine the principles you will use when you think. These thinking tools will enable you to be a better thinker. 4. As a thinker, you will be able to identify with these impactful scenarios as they relate to your thinking in your daily life. The tools will remind you to be a better thinker. The suggested answers are just that—suggestions. Feel free to consider other suggestions that are aligned with the issue and the context.
Category: Self-Help

Enhancing Strategic Planning With Massive Scenario Generation

Author : Paul K. Davis
ISBN : 9780833040176
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 30.45 MB
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This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Learning From The Future

Author : R. Randall
ISBN : 0471303526
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 87.14 MB
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"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager's toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today's leading practitioners in the field." -Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." -David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning-the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." -David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." -Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." -George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Category: Business & Economics

Facing The Fold

Author : James A. Ogilvy
ISBN : 1908009225
Genre : Emergency management
File Size : 43.48 MB
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How do we face the uncertainty and complexity of the future? An overly optimistic perspective can be motivating but easily dismissed as naïve or shallow; the pessimistic outlook may be considered to be deeper and more 'knowing' but could lead to inaction. But limiting our visions of the future to simply one of these two 'branches' would mean adopting a position that is ultimately no more than a fatalistic rut. Facing The Fold is a collection of highly regarded journal essays about how scenario thinking uses the capacious space of the 'fold' to encourage thinking around alternative scenarios--to create the future we both want and need. Scenarios are not predictions, nor are they strategies. Scenarios are stories -- narratives of alternative futures, designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues. According to Ogilvy, scenario planning has generally been considered an art, but here he discusses the extent to which it can also be considered an integral part of 'the new sciences', especially complexity science. The narrative of scenario planning is of particular importance to complexity practitioners. Like complexity approaches, the advantage of scenarios is that they take into account the values and the contextual complexity surrounding the community and provide a way to reflect on the consequences of any strategy changes. The book is divided into 3 clear sections: Section I is about the 'nuts and bolts' of scenario planning and, as outlined in the first chapter co-authored with Peter Schwartz, the steps involved in the practice of developing scenarios, and the key considerations to ensure successful scenario planning. Section II situates scenario planning in the larger context of the human sciences of anthropology, psychology, literary criticism, philosophy and sociology. Section III offers a set of case studies--actual scenarios created for real projects. Lessons learnt from working in the public and the private sector are followed by two in-depth case studies on the future of higher education in California and K-12 public education in Seattle. The challenges and opportunities that were faced at the time are uncannily similar to current problems in the funding of education facilities around the world. Alternative scenarios to the momentum of increasing deficit and declining quality were developed at the time, and the author provides an afterword to show how these scenarios have held up over time. As Adam Kahane (Reos Partners and the University of Oxford) said in his review '...This wonderful collection of his writings is a most welcome and valuable contribution to the field.'
Category: Emergency management

Business Planning For Turbulent Times

Author : Rafael Ramírez
ISBN : 9781849710602
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 41.15 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This second edition extends the use of scenarios planning and methods to tackle the risk and uncertainty of financial markets and the potentially massive impacts on businesses of all kinds, providing powerful tools to give far thinking executives an advantage in these turbulent times. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community
Category: Business & Economics

Business Planning For Turbulent Times

Author : Rafael Rami ́rez
ISBN : 9781849770644
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 74.47 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
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The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods.This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.
Category: Business & Economics

Scenario Planning

Author : M. Lindgren
ISBN : 9780230511620
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 44.37 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy. They argue that the concept of scenario planning is as much an art as a practical management tool.
Category: Business & Economics

Scenario Based E Learning

Author : Ken Spero
ISBN : 9781562868406
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 54.75 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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Scenario-based e-learning is a proven and engaging way to aid learners in retrieving information or insights to improve their performance. In this Infoline, you will learn about: •the power of computer-based simulations to capture and provide practical experience •the basics of designing a computer-based simulation •how to develop complex and engaging scenarios. This Infoline outlines the essential elements of a good scenario and includes tips for developing strong characters, experience portfolios, anchor stories, and a job aid to guide designers and SMEs in authoring and developing their simulations.
Category: Business & Economics