RECKONING-WITH-RISK

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Reckoning With Risk

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
ISBN : 9780141933085
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 70.84 MB
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"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - New Scientist However much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.
Category: Mathematics

Essential Decision Making And Clinical Judgement For Nurses E Book

Author : Carl Thompson
ISBN : 9780702042522
Genre : Medical
File Size : 82.55 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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This book provides the skills and knowledge to use information effectively when exercising professional judgement and clinical decisions. By integrating theory with practical examples, it provides an overview of the key issues facing nurses in decision making today. Review of up-to-date research into clinical professional judgement and decision making Focus on evidence and skills and knowledge relevant to nursing practice Combines current theory with analysis of applications in practice Learning exercises and self-assessment components in each chapter Comprehensive coverage of subject
Category: Medical

Risk Savvy

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
ISBN : 9780141970110
Genre : Self-Help
File Size : 42.52 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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A fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk. Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisors, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. But what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? How do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? Is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner? This entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. Gerd Gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. He shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives. 'Gigerenzer is brilliant and his topic is fabulous' Steven Pinker 'Catchily optimistic and slyly funny' Guardian Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk.
Category: Self-Help

Kinship By Design

Author : Ellen Herman
ISBN : 9780226328072
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 35.69 MB
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What constitutes a family? Tracing the dramatic evolution of Americans’ answer to this question over the past century, Kinship by Design provides the fullest account to date of modern adoption’s history. Beginning in the early 1900s, when children were still transferred between households by a variety of unregulated private arrangements, Ellen Herman details efforts by the U.S. Children’s Bureau and the Child Welfare League of America to establish adoption standards in law and practice. She goes on to trace Americans’ shifting ideas about matching children with physically or intellectually similar parents, revealing how research in developmental science and technology shaped adoption as it navigated the nature-nurture debate. Concluding with an insightful analysis of the revolution that ushered in special needs, transracial, and international adoptions, Kinship by Design ultimately situates the practice as both a different way to make a family and a universal story about love, loss, identity, and belonging. In doing so, this volume provides a new vantage point from which to view twentieth-century America, revealing as much about social welfare, statecraft, and science as it does about childhood, family, and private life.
Category: Social Science

Rationality For Mortals

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
ISBN : 9780199747092
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 90.36 MB
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What is the nature of human wisdom? For many, the ideal image of sapiens is a heavenly one: an omniscient God, a Laplacean demon, a supercomputer, or a fully consistent logical system. Gerd Gigerenzer argues, in contrast, that there are more efficient tools than logic in our minds, which he calls fast and frugal heuristics. These adaptive tools work in a world where the present is only partially known and the future is uncertain. Here, rationality is not logical but ecological, and this volume shows how this insight can help remedy even the widespread problem of statistical innumeracy.RATIONALITY FOR MORTALS (which follows on a previous collection, ADAPTIVE THINKING, also published by OUP) presents Gigerenzer's most recent articles, revised and updated where appropriate, together with a newly written introduction.
Category: Philosophy

Thinking And Reasoning

Author : Ken Manktelow
ISBN : 9781136295232
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 84.79 MB
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The area of psychological research reviewed in this book is one that is not only increasing in popularity in college curricula, but is also making an ever larger impact on the world outside the classroom. Drawing upon research originally cited in Ken Manktelow’s highly successful publication Reasoning and Thinking, this completely rewritten textbook reflects on the revolutionary changes that have occurred in the field in recent years, stemming from the huge expansion in research output, as well as new methods and explanations, and the appearance of numerous books on the subject aimed at the popular market. The main areas covered are probability judgment, deductive and inductive reasoning, decision making, hypothetical thinking and rationality. In each case, the material is almost entirely new, with topics such as the new paradigm in reasoning research, causal reasoning and counterfactual thinking appearing for the first time. The book also presents an extended treatment of decision making research, and contains a chapter on individual and cultural influences on thinking. Thinking and Reasoning provides a detailed, integrated and approachable treatment of this area of cognitive psychology, and is ideal reading for intermediate and advanced undergraduate students; indeed, for anyone interested in how we draw conclusions and make choices.
Category: Psychology

The Self Illusion

Author : Bruce Hood
ISBN : 9780199969890
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 30.88 MB
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Most of us believe that we are unique and coherent individuals, but are we? The idea of a "self" has existed ever since humans began to live in groups and become sociable. Those who embrace the self as an individual in the West, or a member of the group in the East, feel fulfilled and purposeful. This experience seems incredibly real but a wealth of recent scientific evidence reveals that this notion of the independent, coherent self is an illusion - it is not what it seems. Reality as we perceive it is not something that objectively exists, but something that our brains construct from moment to moment, interpreting, summarizing, and substituting information along the way. Like a science fiction movie, we are living in a matrix that is our mind. In The Self Illusion, Dr. Bruce Hood reveals how the self emerges during childhood and how the architecture of the developing brain enables us to become social animals dependent on each other. He explains that self is the product of our relationships and interactions with others, and it exists only in our brains. The author argues, however, that though the self is an illusion, it is one that humans cannot live without. But things are changing as our technology develops and shapes society. The social bonds and relationships that used to take time and effort to form are now undergoing a revolution as we start to put our self online. Social networking activities such as blogging, Facebook, Linkedin and Twitter threaten to change the way we behave. Social networking is fast becoming socialization on steroids. The speed and ease at which we can form alliances and relationships is outstripping the same selection processes that shaped our self prior to the internet era. This book ventures into unchartered territory to explain how the idea of the self will never be the same again in the online social world.
Category: Psychology

Introducing Statistics

Author : Eileen Magnello
ISBN : 9781848317734
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 74.45 MB
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From the medicine we take, the treatments we receive, the aptitude and psychometric tests given by employers, the cars we drive, the clothes we wear to even the beer we drink, statistics have given shape to the world we inhabit. For the media, statistics are routinely 'damning', 'horrifying', or, occasionally, 'encouraging'. Yet, for all their ubiquity, most of us really don't know what to make of statistics. Exploring the history, mathematics, philosophy and practical use of statistics, Eileen Magnello - accompanied by Bill Mayblin's intelligent graphic illustration - traces the rise of statistics from the ancient Babylonians, Egyptians and Chinese, to the censuses of Romans and the Greeks, and the modern emergence of the term itself in Europe. She explores the 'vital statistics' of, in particular, William Farr, and the mathematical statistics of Karl Pearson and R.A. Fisher.She even tells how knowledge of statistics can prolong one's life, as it did for evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, given eight months to live after a cancer diagnoses in 1982 - and he lived until 2002. This title offers an enjoyable, surprise-filled tour through a subject that is both fascinating and crucial to understanding our world.
Category: Mathematics