Reasoning About Uncertainty

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Reasoning About Uncertainty

Author : Joseph Y. Halpern
ISBN : 9780262533805
Genre : Computers
File Size : 80.10 MB
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Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics.
Category: Computers

The Argumentative Turn In Policy Analysis

Author : Sven Ove Hansson
ISBN : 3319305484
Genre : Policy sciences
File Size : 83.26 MB
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This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policy issues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulations of the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematize discussions.
Category: Policy sciences

Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty

Author : Khaled Mellouli
ISBN : 9783540752554
Genre : Computers
File Size : 55.31 MB
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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 9th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2007, held in Hammammet, Tunisia, Oktober 31 - November 2, 2007. The 78 revised full papers presented together with 3 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from over hundret submissions for inclusion in the book. The papers are organized in topical sections on Bayesian networks, graphical models, learning causal networks, planning, causality and independence, preference modelling and decision, argumentation systems, inconsistency handling, belief revision and merging, belief functions, fuzzy models, many-valued logical systems, uncertainty logics, probabilistic reasoning, reasoning models under uncertainty, uncertainty measures, probabilistic classifiers, classification and clustering, and industrial applications.
Category: Computers

Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning And Uncertainty

Author : Michael Clarke
ISBN : 354057395X
Genre : Computers
File Size : 67.61 MB
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In recent years it has become apparent that an important part of the theory of artificial intelligence is concerned with reasoning on the basis of uncertain, incomplete, or inconsistent information. A variety of formalisms have been developed, including nonmonotonic logic, fuzzy sets, possibility theory, belief functions, and dynamic models of reasoning such as belief revision and Bayesian networks. Several European research projects have been formed in the area and the first European conference was held in 1991. This volume contains the papers accepted for presentation at ECSQARU-93, the European Conference on Symbolicand Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty, held at the University of Granada, Spain, November 8-10, 1993.
Category: Computers

Persuasion Und Wissenschaft

Author : Günther Kreuzbauer
ISBN : 3825895785
Genre : Persuasion (Rhetoric)
File Size : 82.84 MB
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Category: Persuasion (Rhetoric)

Real World Reasoning Toward Scalable Uncertain Spatiotemporal Contextual And Causal Inference

Author : Ben Goertzel
ISBN : 9789491216114
Genre : Computers
File Size : 90.64 MB
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The general problem addressed in this book is a large and important one: how to usefully deal with huge storehouses of complex information about real-world situations. Every one of the major modes of interacting with such storehouses – querying, data mining, data analysis – is addressed by current technologies only in very limited and unsatisfactory ways. The impact of a solution to this problem would be huge and pervasive, as the domains of human pursuit to which such storehouses are acutely relevant is numerous and rapidly growing. Finally, we give a more detailed treatment of one potential solution with this class, based on our prior work with the Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN) formalism. We show how PLN can be used to carry out realworld reasoning, by means of a number of practical examples of reasoning regarding human activities inreal-world situations.
Category: Computers

Neural Symbolic Cognitive Reasoning

Author : Artur S. D'Avila Garcez
ISBN : 9783540732457
Genre : Computers
File Size : 42.51 MB
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This book explores why, regarding practical reasoning, humans are sometimes still faster than artificial intelligence systems. It is the first to offer a self-contained presentation of neural network models for many computer science logics.
Category: Computers

Key Ideas In Teaching Mathematics

Author : Anne Watson
ISBN : 9780191643422
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 81.70 MB
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Big ideas in the mathematics curriculum for older school students, especially those that are hard to learn and hard to teach, are covered in this book. It will be a first port of call for research about teaching big ideas for students from 9-19 and also has implications for a wider range of students. These are the ideas that really matter, that students get stuck on, and that can be obstacles to future learning. It shows how students learn, why they sometimes get things wrong, and the strengths and pitfalls of various teaching approaches. Contemporary high-profile topics like modelling are included. The authors are experienced teachers, researchers and mathematics educators, and many teachers and researchers have been involved in the thinking behind this book, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. An associated website, hosted by the Nuffield Foundation, summarises the key messages in the book and connects them to examples of classroom tasks that address important learning issues about particular mathematical ideas.
Category: Mathematics

Logical And Relational Learning

Author : Luc De Raedt
ISBN : 9783540688563
Genre : Computers
File Size : 60.82 MB
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This first textbook on multi-relational data mining and inductive logic programming provides a complete overview of the field. It is self-contained and easily accessible for graduate students and practitioners of data mining and machine learning.
Category: Computers

Discourse Interaction And Communication

Author : INTERNATIONAL COLLOQUIUM ON COGNITIVE SCIENCE 1995
ISBN : 0792349520
Genre : Computers
File Size : 62.73 MB
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The papers in this volume represent leading-edge work by well-known scholars on the topics mentioned in the title: discourse, interaction, and communication. They report work done from widely divergent points on the theoretical spectrum of cognitive science, and from different disciplinary starting points (philosophy, logic, linguistics, artificial intelligence). Not only do these works faithfully represent the main topics and the wide range of differing positions presented at the Fourth International Colloquium on Cognitive Science (ICCS-95), but despite their differences (or perhaps because of these differences) they also display many clear directions for future research in these three central areas of cognitive science. This book is essential reading for all researchers in cognitive science.
Category: Computers

Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty

Author : European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty
ISBN : 9783540424642
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 22.97 MB
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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2001, held in Toulouse, France in September 2001. The 68 revised full papers presented together with three invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from over a hundred submissions. The book offers topical sections on decision theory, partially observable Markov decision processes, decision-making, coherent probabilities, Bayesian networks, learning causal networks, graphical representation of uncertainty, imprecise probabilities, belief functions, fuzzy sets and rough sets, possibility theory, merging, belief revision and preferences, inconsistency handling, default logic, logic programming, etc.
Category: Business & Economics

Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty

Author : Lluis Godo
ISBN : 3540273263
Genre : Computers
File Size : 52.47 MB
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These are the proceedings of the 8th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2005, held in Barcelona (Spain), July 6–8, 2005. The ECSQARU conferences are biennial and have become a major forum for advances in the theory and practice of r- soning under uncertainty. The ?rst ECSQARU conference was held in Marseille (1991), and after in Granada (1993), Fribourg (1995), Bonn (1997), London (1999), Toulouse (2001) and Aalborg (2003). The papers gathered in this volume were selected out of 130 submissions, after a strict review process by the members of the Program Committee, to be presented at ECSQARU 2005. In addition, the conference included invited lectures by three outstanding researchers in the area, Seraf ́ ?n Moral (Imprecise Probabilities), Rudolf Kruse (Graphical Models in Planning) and J ́ erˆ ome Lang (Social Choice). Moreover, the application of uncertainty models to real-world problems was addressed at ECSQARU 2005 by a special session devoted to s- cessful industrial applications, organized by Rudolf Kruse. Both invited lectures and papers of the special session contribute to this volume. On the whole, the programme of the conference provided a broad, rich and up-to-date perspective of the current high-level research in the area which is re?ected in the contents of this volume. IwouldliketowarmlythankthemembersoftheProgramCommitteeandthe additional referees for their valuable work, the invited speakers and the invited session organizer.
Category: Computers

Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty

Author : Claudio Sossai
ISBN : 9783642029059
Genre : Computers
File Size : 54.51 MB
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These are the proceedings of the 10th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2009, held in Verona (Italy), July 1–3, 2009. The biennial ECSQARU conferences are a major forum for advances in the theory and practice of reasoning under uncertainty. The ?rst ECSQARU conf- ence was held in Marseille (1991), and since then it has been held in Granada (1993), Fribourg (1995), Bonn (1997), London (1999), Toulouse (2001), Aalborg (2003), Barcelona (2005) and Hammamet (2007). The 76 papers gathered in this volume were selected out of 118 submissions from 34 countries, after a rigorous review process. In addition, the conference included invited lectures by three outstanding researchers in the area: Isabelle Bloch (“Fuzzy and bipolar mathematical morphology, applications in spatial reasoning”), Petr Cintula (“From (deductive) fuzzy logic to (logic-based) fuzzy mathematics”),andDaniele Mundici(“Conditionalsandindependence inma- valued logics”). Twospecialsessionswerepresentedduringtheconference:“Conditioning,- dependence, inference” (organizedby Giulianella Coletti and BarbaraVantaggi) and “Mathematicalfuzzy logic” (organizedby Stefano Aguzzoli,Brunella Gerla, Llu´ ?s Godo, Vincenzo Marra, Franco Montagna) On the whole, the program of the conference provided a broad, rich and up-to-date perspective of the current high-level research in the area which is re?ected in the contents of this volume.
Category: Computers

Uncertainty And Quality In Science For Policy

Author : S.O. Funtowicz
ISBN : 0792307992
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 81.57 MB
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This book explains the notational system NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree) and applies it to several examples from the environmental sciences. The authors are now making further extensions of NUSAP, including an algorithm for the propagation of quality-grades through models used in risk and safety studies. They are also developing the concept of `Post-normal Science', in which quality assurance of information requires the participation of `extended peer-communities' lying outside the traditional expertise.
Category: Social Science

Uncertain Belief

Author : David J. Bartholomew
ISBN : 0191584738
Genre : Religion
File Size : 71.48 MB
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The certainties which once underpinned Christian belief have crumbled in a world where science sets the standard for what is true. A rational case for belief must therefore be constructed out of uncertainties. Probability theory provides the tools for measuring and combining uncertainties and is thus the key to progress. This book examines four much debated topics where the logic of uncertain inference can be brought to bear. These are: miracles, the paranormal, God's existence, and the Bible. Given the great diversity of evidence, it is not surprising that opposite conclusions have been drawn by supposedly rational people. An assessment of the state of argument from a probabilistic perspective is overdue. In this book Professor Bartholomew examines and refutes some of the more extravagent claims, evaluates the weight of some of the quantitive evidence, and provides an answer to the fundamental question: is it rational to be a Christian?
Category: Religion

Professional Uncertainty Knowledge And Relationship In The Classroom

Author : Joseph Mintz
ISBN : 9781135905859
Genre : Education
File Size : 84.59 MB
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The extent to which teachers should make use of theoretical and expert knowledge as opposed to tacit experiential knowledge, and how these might be combined, is a perennial issue in discussions on pedagogy. This book addresses these debates through a creative development of the concept of productive uncertainty. Using case studies focusing on teachers working with children with autism, a particularly fertile crucible for considering uncertainty, the book explores how the radical 20th century psychoanalyst Wilfred Bion's epistemological approach to uncertainty can be used to re-frame Donald Schön's concept of reflection in action, offering a new perspective on the practice of teachers and other caring professionals. Several areas of potential uncertainty are identified, including uncertainty relating to areas of practice including diagnosis, the relationship between expert knowledge and practice, the implications of autism for autonomy and agency, and uncertainties in relation to the understanding of and use of new technologies. A strong argument is made, based on both theoretical and empirical grounds, that in juggling between theoretical and tacit knowledge in the classroom there is more to be gained by staying with the struggle with uncertainty than by fleeing from it too early, into the promise of expert solutions. Consideration is also given to the relative importance of specific theoretical training for teachers, both in general and in relation to working with children with special educational needs, in the context of international and UK policy developments in this area. This book will be of key value to researchers and postgraduates in the fields of education studies, teacher thinking and research, psychoanalytically informed psychosocial studies, as well as to practitioners working in special educational needs/autism education.
Category: Education

The Semantic Web Research And Applications

Author : York Sure
ISBN : 9783540345442
Genre : Computers
File Size : 28.59 MB
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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 3rd European Semantic Web Conference, ESWC 2006, held in Budva, Montenegro in June 2006. The 48 revised full papers presented together with abstracts of 3 invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from a total of 181 submitted papers. The papers are organized in topical sections on ontology alignment, engineering, evaluation, evolution and learning, rules and reasoning, searching and quering, semantic annotation, semantic web minig and personalisation, semantic web services, semantic wiki and blogging, as well as trus and policies.
Category: Computers

Artificial Intelligence

Author : Neeta Deshpande
ISBN : 8184313373
Genre :
File Size : 49.87 MB
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Definition, What is A.I? Foundation of A.I., History, Intelligent Agents, Agent architecture, A. I. Application (E Commerce & Medicine), A. I. Representation, Properties of internal representation, Future of A.I., Production System, Issue in design of search programsLogic ProgrammingIntroduction, Logic, Logic Programming, Forward and Backward resoning, Forward and Backward chaining rules.Heuristic Search TechniquesHeuristic search , Hill Climbing, Best first search, mean and end analysis, constraint Satisfaction, A* and AO* Algorithm.Game PlayingMinimax search procedure, Alpha-beta cutoffs, Waiting for quiescence, Secondary searcKnowledge RepresentationBasic of knowledge representation, knowledge representation paradigms, Propositional logic, Inference Rules in Propositional logic, Knowledge representation using Predicate logic : Predicate calculus, Predicate and arguments, ISA hierarchy, Frame notation, Resolution, Natural deduction.Knowledge Representation using Non Montionic LogicTMS ( Truth Maintenance System ), Statistical and probabilistic reasoning Fuzzy- Logic ,Structure knowledge representation, Semantic-net, Frames, Conceptual dependency, Script.LearningWhat is Learning? Types of Learning (Rote, Direct instruction analogy, Induction, Deduction)PlanningBlock world, Strips, Implementation using goal stack, Non linear planning with goal stacks, Hierarichial planning, least commitment strategy.Advance AI TopicsNatural Language ProcessingIntroduction, Steps in NLP, Syntactic Processing, ATN, RTN, Semantic analysis, Discourse & Pragmatic processing.PereceptionPerception , Action, Robot Architecture.Neural NetworksIntroduction to neural networks and perception-qualitative analysis, Neural net architecture and applications.Expert systemUtilization and functionality, Architecture of expert system, Knowledge representation, Two case studies on expert systems.
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