Predicting The Unpredictable

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Predicting The Unpredictable

Author : Susan Elizabeth Hough
ISBN : 9781400883547
Genre : Science
File Size : 45.15 MB
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Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.
Category: Science

Predicting The Unpredictable

Author : Susan Elizabeth Hough
ISBN : 9781400831807
Genre : Science
File Size : 59.93 MB
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An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the cataclysmic 2008 Sichuan quake in China that killed tens of thousands or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can't predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable is the first book to explain why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science--and pseudoscience--of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes--a quest fraught with controversies, spectacular failures, and occasional apparent successes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field with the pioneers who have sought to develop reliable methods based on observable phenomena such as small earthquake patterns and electromagnetic signals. Hough describes attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She recounts stories of strange occurrences preceding massive quakes, such as changes in well water levels and mysterious ground fogs. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream, from the enduring belief that animals can sense impending earthquakes to amateur YouTube videos purporting to show earthquake lights prior to large quakes. This book is an entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, one that illuminates the unique challenges of predicting the unpredictable.
Category: Science

Predicting The Unpredictable

Author : Johanna Rothman
ISBN : 9781680504286
Genre : Computers
File Size : 77.25 MB
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" If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is to guess. But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers with the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report an estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should and should not estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects. "
Category: Computers

The Physics Of Finance

Author : James Owen Weatherall
ISBN : 1780720874
Genre : Prediction theory
File Size : 52.45 MB
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"He takes us on a lively journey from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack-era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes, showing how some of the finest scientific minds of the last century came to construct the sophisticated models on which modern securities trading is based"--Back cover.
Category: Prediction theory

Predicting The Unpredictable

Author : Terence C. Mills
ISBN : STANFORD:36105008602463
Genre : Investment analysis
File Size : 48.85 MB
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The author discusses how research in financial markets has evolved and whether the application of theories can ever be translated into 'excess profits'.
Category: Investment analysis

The Physics Of Wall Street

Author : James Owen Weatherall
ISBN : 9780547618296
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 58.24 MB
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A look inside the world of “quants” and how science can (and can’t) predict financial markets: “Entertaining and enlightening” (The New York Times). After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But while many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack–era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, James Owen Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it’s to make them better. This book reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance, from a geophysicist using a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash to a physicist-run hedge fund earning 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. Weatherall shows how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. The Physics of Wall Street will change how we think about our economic future. “Fascinating history . . . Happily, the author has a gift for making complex concepts clear to lay readers.” —Booklist
Category: Business & Economics

Predicting The Unpredictable

Author : Terence C. Mills
ISBN : STANFORD:36105008602463
Genre : Investment analysis
File Size : 59.59 MB
Format : PDF
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The author discusses how research in financial markets has evolved and whether the application of theories can ever be translated into 'excess profits'.
Category: Investment analysis

Aid On The Edge Of Chaos

Author : Ben Ramalingam
ISBN : 9780191503443
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 40.56 MB
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Many agree that the foreign aid system - which today involves virtually every nation on earth - needs drastic change. But there is much conflict as to what should be done. In Aid on the Edge of Chaos, Ben Ramalingam argues that what is most needed is the creative and innovative transformation of how aid works. Foreign aid today is dominated by linear, mechanistic ideas that emerged from early twentieth century industry, and are ill-suited to the world we face today. The problems and systems aid agencies deal with on a daily basis have more in common with ecosystems than machines: they are interconnected, diverse, and dynamic; they cannot be just simply re-engineered or fixed. Outside of aid, social scientists, economists, business leaders, and policy makers have started applying innovative and scientific approaches to such problems, informed by ideas from the 'new science' of complex adaptive systems. Inspired by these efforts, aid practitioners and researchers have started experimenting with such approaches in their own work. This book showcases the experiences, insights, and often remarkable results of innovative thinkers and practitioners who are working to bring these approaches into the mainstream of aid. From transforming child malnutrition to rethinking economic growth, from building peace to reversing desertification, from rural Vietnam to urban Kenya, the ideas of complex systems thinking are starting to be used to make foreign aid more relevant, more appropriate, and more catalytic. Aid on the Edge of Chaos argues that such ideas and approaches should play a vital part of the transformation of aid. Aid should move from being an imperfect post-World War II global resource transfer system, to a new form of global cooperation that is truly fit for the twenty-first century.
Category: Business & Economics

Symmetry And Its Discontents

Author : S. L. Zabell
ISBN : 0521444705
Genre : Language Arts & Disciplines
File Size : 74.66 MB
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This volume contains essays on the history and philosophy of probability and statistics.
Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

Unexpected

Author : Mark Currie
ISBN : 9780748676316
Genre : Literary Criticism
File Size : 36.96 MB
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Explores the relationship between unexpected events in narrative and life
Category: Literary Criticism

Inside Prime Time

Author : Todd Gitlin
ISBN : 9781134886586
Genre : Language Arts & Disciplines
File Size : 49.73 MB
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Prime time: those precious few hours every night when the three major television networks garner millions of dollars while tens of millions of Americans tune in. Inside Prime Time is a classic study of the workings of the Hollywood television industry, newly available with an updated introduction. Inside Prime Time takes us behind the scenes to reveal how prime-time shows get on the air, stay on the air, and are shaped by the political and cultural climate of their times. It provides an ethnography of the world of American commercial television, an analysis of that world's unwritten rules, and the most extensive study of the industry ever made.
Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

44 Letters From The Liquid Modern World

Author : Zygmunt Bauman
ISBN : 9780745650579
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 77.40 MB
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This liquid modern world of ours, like all liquids, cannot stand still and keep its shape for long. Everything keeps changing - the fashions we follow, the events that intermittently catch our attention, the things we dream of and things we fear. And we, the inhabitants of this world in flux, feel the need to adjust to its tempo by being 'flexible' and constantly ready to change. We want to know what is going on and what is likely to happen, but what we get is an avalanche of information that threatens to overwhelm us. How are we to sift the information that really matters from the heaps of useless and irrelevant rubbish? How are we to derive meaningful messages from senseless noise? We face the daunting task of trying to distinguish the important from the insubstantial, distil the things that matter from false alarms and flashes in the pan. Nothing escapes scrutiny so stubbornly as the ordinary things of everyday life, hiding in the light of deceptive and misleading familiarity. To turn them into objects of attention and scrutiny, they must first be torn out from that daily routine: the apparently familiar must be made strange. This is precisely what Zygmunt Bauman seeks to do in these 44 letters: each tells a story drawn from ordinary lives, but tells it in order to reveal an extraordinariness that we might otherwise overlook. Arresting, revealing, disconcerting, these snapshots of life by the most brilliant analyst of our liquid modern world will appeal to a wide readership.
Category: Social Science

Whole World On Fire

Author : Lynn Eden
ISBN : 080147289X
Genre : History
File Size : 27.2 MB
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The author explores how the US government has underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons, leading it to build far more - and far more destructive - warheads than are needed for war-planning purposes. She explores how this could have happened and the consequences for defense policy.
Category: History

Handbook Of Technology In Financial Services

Author : Jessica Keyes
ISBN : 0849399815
Genre : Computers
File Size : 86.26 MB
Format : PDF
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The calculus of IT support for the banking, securities and insurance industries has changed dramatically and rapidly over the past few years. Unheard of just a few years ago, corporate intranets are now used for everything from job postings to enhanced team communications. Whole new departments are being created to support e-commerce. And the Internet/Intranet/Extranet triple-whammy is the most critical component of most financial IT shops. At the same time, new intelligent agents stand ready to take on such diverse functions as customer profiling and data mining. Get a handle on all these new and newer ripples with Handbook of Technology in Financial Services. Here, in this exhaustive new guide and reference book, industry guru Jessica Keyes gives you the no-nonsense scoop on not just the tried and true IT tools of today, but also the up-and-coming "hot" technologies of tomorrow, and how to plan for them. Keyes gives you extensive, example-driven explanations of such topics as: digital check imaging and Internet-based billing e-commerce and Internet banking portfolio management systems for the 21st century GIS technology in financial services and much more. Focusing on problems from both a technology perspective and a business perspective, the Handbook also addresses challenges and solutions associated with: supporting the self-service revolution by servicing kiosks and ATMs efficiently and economically straight-through processing for the securities industry outsourcing business communications in the insurance industry distributed integration as a cost-effective alternative to data warehousing and putting inbound fax automation to work in financial organizations. Packed with real-world case-studies and practical solutions to problems confronting financial services IT managers every day of the week, Handbook of Technology in Financial Services covers everything from system security to IT support for the Web marketing of financial services. In short, it is a compendium of essential information no professional can afford to be without.
Category: Computers

The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9781101595954
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 88.21 MB
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"One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Category: Political Science

Positive Development

Author : Janis Birkeland
ISBN : 9781136559440
Genre : Nature
File Size : 30.21 MB
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Janis Birkeland presents the innovative new paradigm of 'Positive Development' in which the built environment provides greater life quality, health, amenity and safety for all without sacrificing resources or money. With a different form of design, development itself can become a 'sustainability solution'. A cornerstone of this new paradigm is the eco-retrofitting of the vast urban fabric we already inhabit. The author presents a revolutionary new tool called SmartMode to achieve this end. This book challenges everyone working in or studying the areas of sustainable development, planning, architecture or the built environment to rethink their current ideas and practices.
Category: Nature

Physics

Author : Lawrie Ryan
ISBN : 0748768017
Genre : Science
File Size : 76.12 MB
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These brand-new readers are designed to extend and deepen students' level of scientific knowledge and understanding. Topics are presented in various forms - stories, case studies, articles and discussion pieces - to stimulate and gain students' interest. Questions increase in difficulty in order to show students' progression, and help consolidate learning.
Category: Science

Autoimmune Diseases Of The Endocrine System

Author : Robert Volpe'
ISBN : 0849368499
Genre : Medical
File Size : 65.51 MB
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This book is a comprehensive, easy-to-read discussion of the organ-specific autoimmune endocrine diseases emphasizing new contributions and trends for research and management. It begins with a brief chapter introducing the general principles of immunology, followed by discussions covering topics such as immunogenetics and animal models and how they can be applied toward interpreting human autoimmune endocrine diseases, autoimmune thyroid diseases, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus hypophysitis, and Addison's disease. The book also discusses future trends toward gaining an understanding of these disorders and possible therapeutic principles. It is well-illustrated and will prove to be a useful reference source for internists, endocrinologists, and postgraduate students interested in human autoimmune endocrine diseases.
Category: Medical

Secrets Of The Moneylab

Author : Kay-Yut Chen
ISBN : 9781101444245
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 62.31 MB
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Taking the findings of behavioral economics from the cocktail party to the boardroom. Experimental economist Kay-Yut Chen leads an economics lab at Hewlett- Packard-the first of its kind at any company. His groundbreaking research into human behavior has turned into tangible results for HP. He has saved the company millions of dollars, simply by explaining why people really do the things they do. MoneyLab offers practical lessons being put to use right now at HP and other leading companies. It explains, for instance, how to: ? Use incentives to influence employees, suppliers, and buyers ? Determine whom to trust, and how much ? Reduce the negative effects of irrational behavior by noticing patterns that don't seem logical ? Take advantage of the human tendency to game the system In the spirit of Predictably Irrational, but with a more practical approach, Chen shows how to translate the findings of behavioral economics into concrete actions to achieve new levels of success.
Category: Business & Economics