FINANCIAL RISK FORECASTING

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Financial Risk Forecasting

Author : Jon Danielsson
ISBN : 9781119977117
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 63.79 MB
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Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Category: Business & Economics

Quantitative Financial Risk Management

Author : Desheng Dash Wu
ISBN : 3642193390
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 83.3 MB
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The bulk of this volume deals with the four main aspects of risk management: market risk, credit risk, risk management - in macro-economy as well as within companies. It presents a number of approaches and case studies directed at applying risk management to diverse business environments. Included are traditional market and credit risk management models such as the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model, the Vasicek Model, Factor models, CAPM models, GARCH models, KMV models and credit scoring models.
Category: Business & Economics

Elements Of Financial Risk Management

Author : Peter Christoffersen
ISBN : 9780080472614
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 30.63 MB
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Elements of Financial Risk Management offers an introduction to modern risk management. It focuses on implementation, especially recent techniques which facilitate bridging the gap between standard textbooks on risk and real-life risk management systems. It identifies key features of risk asset returns and captures them in tractable statistical models in the companion website. It presents step-by-step approaches as a means to solve problems. This book is intended for three types of readers with an interest in financial risk management. First, Master's and Ph.D. students specializing in finance and economics. Second, market practitioners with a quantitative undergraduate or graduate degree. Third, a small group of advanced undergraduates majoring in either economics, engineering, finance, or another quantitative field. The book will also suit those in financial engineering courses who have strong quantitative backgrounds and those in Ph.D. courses. *Pinpoints key features of risk asset returns and captures them in tractable statistical models in the companion website *Presents step-by-step approaches as a means to solve problems *Visible patterns in the data motivate the choices of tools, and when tools fall short, it presents the next tool
Category: Business & Economics

Nonlinear Financial Econometrics Forecasting Models Computational And Bayesian Models

Author : G. Gregoriou
ISBN : 9780230295223
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 46.98 MB
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This book investigates several competing forecasting models for interest rates, financial returns, and realized volatility, addresses the usefulness of nonlinear models for hedging purposes, and proposes new computational techniques to estimate financial processes.
Category: Business & Economics

Financial Econometrics Modeling Market Microstructure Factor Models And Financial Risk Measures

Author : G. Gregoriou
ISBN : 9780230298101
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 90.21 MB
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This book proposes new methods to build optimal portfolios and to analyze market liquidity and volatility under market microstructure effects, as well as new financial risk measures using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular, it investigates the market microstructure of foreign exchange and futures markets.
Category: Business & Economics

Financial Risk Management With Bayesian Estimation Of Garch Models

Author : David Ardia
ISBN : 3540786570
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 53.63 MB
Format : PDF
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This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.
Category: Business & Economics

Business Intelligence In Economic Forecasting Technologies And Techniques

Author : Wang, Jue
ISBN : 9781615206308
Genre : Computers
File Size : 23.59 MB
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With the rapid development of economic globalization and information technology, the field of economic forecasting continues its expeditious advancement, providing business and government with applicable technologies. This book discusses various business intelligence techniques including neural networks, support vector machine, genetic programming, clustering analysis, [email protected], fuzzy systems, text mining, and many more. It serves as a valuable reference for professionals and researchers interested in BI technologies and their practical applications in economic forecasting, as well as policy makers in business organizations and governments.
Category: Computers

Financial Risk Management

Author : Allan M. Malz
ISBN : 9781118022917
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 77.93 MB
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Financial risk has become a focus of financial and nonfinancial firms, individuals, and policy makers. But the study of risk remains a relatively new discipline in finance and continues to be refined. The financial market crisis that began in 2007 has highlighted the challenges of managing financial risk. Now, in Financial Risk Management, author Allan Malz addresses the essential issues surrounding this discipline, sharing his extensive career experiences as a risk researcher, risk manager, and central banker. The book includes standard risk measurement models as well as alternative models that address options, structured credit risks, and the real-world complexities or risk modeling, and provides the institutional and historical background on financial innovation, liquidity, leverage, and financial crises that is crucial to practitioners and students of finance for understanding the world today. Financial Risk Management is equally suitable for firm risk managers, economists, and policy makers seeking grounding in the subject. This timely guide skillfully surveys the landscape of financial risk and the financial developments of recent decades that culminated in the crisis. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the different types of financial risk we face, as well as the techniques used to measure and manage them. Topics covered include: Market risk, from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to risk models for options Credit risk, from portfolio credit risk to structured credit products Model risk and validation Risk capital and stress testing Liquidity risk, leverage, systemic risk, and the forms they take Financial crises, historical and current, their causes and characteristics Financial regulation and its evolution in the wake of the global crisis And much more Combining the more model-oriented approach of risk management-as it has evolved over the past two decades-with an economist's approach to the same issues, Financial Risk Management is the essential guide to the subject for today's complex world.
Category: Business & Economics