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Author : David Lewis
ISBN : 9781118696415
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 37.57 MB
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Counterfactuals is David Lewis' forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrary to fact conditionals, including his famous defense of realism about possible worlds.
Category: Philosophy

Causation And Counterfactuals

Author : John David Collins
ISBN : 0262532565
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 73.30 MB
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A collection of important recent work on thecounterfactual analysis of causation.
Category: Philosophy

Counterfactuals And Causal Inference

Author : Stephen L. Morgan
ISBN : 9781107065079
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 64.32 MB
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This new edition aims to convince social scientists to take a counterfactual approach to the core questions of their fields.
Category: Mathematics

Counterfactuals And Probability

Author : Moritz Schulz
ISBN : 9780198785958
Genre :
File Size : 52.34 MB
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Moritz Schulz explores counterfactual thought and language: what would have happened if things had gone a different way. Counterfactual questions may concern large scale derivations (what would have happened if Nixon had launched a nuclear attack) or small scale evaluations of minor derivations (what would have happened if I had decided to join a different profession). A common impression, which receives a thorough defence in the book, is that oftentimes we find it impossible to know what would have happened. However, this does not mean that we are completely at a loss: we are typically capable of evaluating counterfactual questions probabilistically: we can say what would have been likely or unlikely to happen. Schulz describes these probabilistic ways of evaluating counterfactual questions and turns the data into a novel account of the workings of counterfactual thought.

Similes Puns And Counterfactuals In Literary Narrative

Author : Jennifer Riddle Harding
ISBN : 9781317401933
Genre : Language Arts & Disciplines
File Size : 66.19 MB
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In this study, Jennifer Riddle Harding presents a cognitive analysis of three figures of speech that have readily identifiable forms: similes, puns, and counterfactuals. Harding argues that when deployed in literary narrative, these forms have narrative functions—such as the depiction of conscious experiences, allegorical meanings, and alternative plots—uniquely developed by these more visible figures of speech. Metaphors, by contrast, are often "invisible" in the formal structure of a text. With a solid cognitive grounding, Harding’s approach emphasizes the relationship between figurative forms and narrative effects. Harding demonstrates the literary functions of previously neglected figures of speech, and the potential for a unified approach to a topic that crosses cognitive disciplines. Her work has implications for the rhetorical approach to figures of speech, for cognitive disciplines, and for the studies of literature, rhetoric, and narrative.
Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

Understanding Counterfactuals Understanding Causation

Author : Christoph Hoerl
ISBN : 9780199590698
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 66.84 MB
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Twelve essays explore what bearing empirical findings might have on philosophical concerns about counterfactuals and causation, and how, in turn, work in philosophy might help clarify issues in empirical work on the relationships between causal and counterfactual thought.
Category: Philosophy

Counterfactuals And Scientific Realism

Author : Michael J. Shaffer
ISBN : 9781137271587
Genre : Science
File Size : 65.29 MB
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The author attempts to show that scientific realism is compatible with the presence of idealization in the sciences. His main contention is that idealized theories can be treated as counterfactuals about how things are in worlds that are similar to but simpler than the actual world.
Category: Science

Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
ISBN : 9780691215075
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 61.97 MB
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Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Category: Political Science


Author : M. L. Ginsberg
ISBN : OCLC:227642727
Genre : Artificial intelligence
File Size : 80.39 MB
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Counterfactuals are a form of commonsense non-monotonic inference that has been of long-term interest to philosophers. This paper begins by describing some of the impact counterfactuals can be expected to have in artificial intelligence, and by reviewing briefly some of the philosophical conclusions which have been drawn about them. Philosophers have noted that the content of any particular counterfactual is in part context-dependent; we present a formal description of counterfactuals that allows us to encode this context-dependent information clearly in the choice of a sublanguage of the logical language in which we are working. Having made this choice, we show that our description of counterfactuals is formally identical to the accepted possible worlds interpretation due to David Lewis. Finally, we examine the application of our ideas in the domain of automated diagnosis of hardware faults. Additional keywords: operators(mathematics); mathematical logic; semantics; artificial intelligence. (Author).
Category: Artificial intelligence

Counterfactual Thinking Counterfactual Writing

Author : Dorothee Birke
ISBN : 9783110268669
Genre : Literary Criticism
File Size : 37.21 MB
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Counterfactuality is currently a hotly debated topic. While for some disciplines such as linguistics, cognitive science, or psychology counterfactual scenarios have been an important object of study for quite a while, counterfactual thinking has in recent years emerged as a method of study for other disciplines, most notably the social sciences. This volume provides an overview of the current definitions and uses of the concept of counterfactuality in philosophy, historiography, political sciences, psychology, linguistics, physics, and literary studies. The individual contributions not only engage the controversies that the deployment of counterfactual thinking as a method still generates, they also highlight the concept’s potential to promote interdisciplinary exchange without neglecting the limitations and pitfalls of such a project. Moreover, the essays from literary studies, which make up about half of the volume, provide both a historical and a systematic perspective on the manifold ways in which counterfactual scenarios can be incorporated into and deployed in literary texts.
Category: Literary Criticism

The Psychology Of Counterfactual Thinking

Author : David R. Mandel
ISBN : 9781134353194
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 27.76 MB
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This book provides a critical overview of significant developments in research and theory on counterfactual thinking that have emerged in recent years and spotlights exciting new directions for future research in this area. Key issues considered include the relations between counterfactual and casual reasoning, the functional bases of counterfactual thinking, the role of counterfactual thinking in the experience of emotion and the importance of counterfactual thinking in the context of crime and justice.
Category: Psychology


Author : Christopher Prendergast
ISBN : 1350090093
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 85.87 MB
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Counterfactuals are everywhere. But what are they? And how do they both help and hinder us in our daily lives? Counterfactuals are works of imagination which express something which hasn't happened or simple isn't the case. For example, 'if kangaroos didn't have tails, they would topple over.' or the contemporary usage of things like YOLO and FOMO. These kind of 'what if...?' questions are a creative and dynamic aspect of being human. However, they are also speculative and relative and can become problematic when dressed up as 'facts'. Christopher Prendergast provides us with the first introduction to counterfactuals as a phenomenon which points to their importance and potential but also their serious limitations within a 'post-truth' society. While counterfactuals are a key part of mathematical and scientific enquiry, this is the first book to explore their meaning right across the humanities including literature, philosophy, classics, psychology and ethics (to name but a few). Counterfactuals takes us on a timely and urgent journey to understanding how and we we live in a counterfactual world.
Category: Philosophy

Four Views On Divine Providence

Author : William Lane Craig
ISBN : 9780310547952
Genre : Religion
File Size : 67.96 MB
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Questions about divine providence have preoccupied Christians for generations: Are people elected to salvation? For whom did Jesus die? This book introduces readers to four prevailing views on divine providence, with particular attention to the question of who Jesus died to save (the extent of the atonement) and if or how God determines who will be saved (predestination).But this book does not merely answer readers’ questions. Four Views on Divine Providence helps readers think theologically about all the issues involved in exploring this doctrine. The point-counterpoint format reveals the assumptions and considerations that drive equally learned and sincere theologians to sharp disagreement. It unearths the genuinely decisive issues beneath an often superficial debate. Volume contributors are Paul Helseth (God causes every creaturely event that occurs); William Lane Craig (through his “middle knowledge,” God controls the course of worldly affairs without predetermining any creatures’ free decisions); Ron Highfield (God controls creatures by liberating their decision-making); and Gregory Boyd (human decisions can be free only if God neither determines nor knows what they will be). Introductory and closing essays by Dennis Jowers give relevant background and guide readers toward their own informed beliefs about divine providence.
Category: Religion

Forbidden Fruit

Author : Richard Ned Lebow
ISBN : 9780691132907
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 26.4 MB
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Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.
Category: Political Science

Virtual History

Author : Niall Ferguson
ISBN : 9780241957646
Genre : History
File Size : 89.20 MB
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What if Britain had stayed out of the First World War? What if Germany had won the Second? How would England look if there had been no Cromwell? What would the world be like if Communism had never collapsed? And what if John F. Kennedy had lived? In this acclaimed book, leading historians from Andrew Roberts to Michael Burleigh explore what might have been if nine of the most decisive moments in modern history had never happened.
Category: History


Author : Judea Pearl
ISBN : 0521773628
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 60.93 MB
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Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. The book will facilitate the incorporation of causal analysis as an integral part of the standard curriculum in statistics, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Causality will be of interest to professionals and students in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences.
Category: Philosophy

Causation Physics And The Constitution Of Reality

Author : Huw Price
ISBN : 9780199278190
Genre : Science
File Size : 84.94 MB
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In philosophy as in ordinary life, cause and effect are twin pillars on which much of our thought seems based. But almost a century ago, Bertrand Russell declared that modern physics leaves these pillars without foundations. Russell's revolutionary conclusion was that 'the law of causality is a relic of a bygone age, surviving, like the monarchy, only because it is erroneously supposed to do no harm'. Russell's famous challenge remains unanswered. Despite dramatic advances in physics,the intervening century has taken us no closer to an explanation of how to find a place for causation in a world of the kind that physics reveals. In particular, we still have no satisfactory account of the directionality of causation - the difference between cause and effect, and the fact that causes typically precede their effects. In this important collection of new essays, 13 leading scholars revisit Russell's revolution, in search of reconciliation. The connecting theme in these essays is that to reconcile causation with physics, we need to put ourselves in the picture: we need to think about why creatures in our situation should present their world in causal terms.
Category: Science