CALCULATED RISKS HOW TO KNOW WHEN NUMBERS DECEIVE YOU

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Calculated Risks

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
ISBN : 9781439127094
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 55.62 MB
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At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Category: Social Science

100 Things You Re Not Supposed To Know

Author : Russ Kick
ISBN : 9781609259471
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 63.77 MB
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This book sheds light on those things that people in power—government, religious leaders, corporations, the rich and well connected—would just as soon wish you didn't know. To them secrets are power. And they'll do whatever it takes to keep them that way—suppressing the truth and covering up facts that might make the rest of us angry enough to challenge the powerful or at least to have a good laugh at their expense. Using careful research and impeccable sources, Kick uncovers the hidden truth. For example, self-appointed censors warn constantly about the dangers of pornography, the fact is that pornography has existed since the first cave people carved dirty pictures on the walls. It's also true that two atomic bombs were dropped on North Carolina—although we managed to avoid nuking Greenland, Texas, Canada, Britain and Spain; George Washington embezzled government funds; 1 of 10 people is not fathered by the man they believe is dad; Barbie is based on a German sex doll; The American colonists practiced cannibalism, and much more. This is a combined edition of 50 Things You're Not Supposed to Know Volumes 1 and 2 first published in 2003 and 2004.
Category: Social Science

The Life You Save

Author : Patrick Malone
ISBN : 9780786748099
Genre : Health & Fitness
File Size : 52.23 MB
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Millions of Americans suffer from indifferent, outdated health care; an estimated 40,000 incidents of medical harm happen every day. The good news is that you can prevent this from happening to you or a family member. Better yet, you can find the very best care in the world. Patrick Malone’s sensible advice and real-life anecdotes will inspire you to take charge of your own health care, make the best choices, and avoid serious harm. With the “Necessary Nine”—the essential steps to finding the best medical care—The Life You Save offers vital information such as: • The single most important question you can ask your doctor • When to know you have symptoms your doctor should not shrug off • Checklists to help you get out of the hospital in one piece • Where to locate the best surgeons and safest hospitals
Category: Health & Fitness

Reduce Your Cancer Risk

Author : Barbara Boughton
ISBN : 1935281283
Genre : Health & Fitness
File Size : 84.41 MB
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Develop your anticancer strategy Knowledge is power. Knowing your cancer risk is your best weapon against cancer. Co-published with the American Cancer Society, Reduce Your Cancer Risk: Twelve Steps to a Healthier Life will help you assess your risk based on your family history, genetics, and environment, and help you make a comprehensive action plan to lower your chances of getting cancer. With an anticancer strategy in place, youíll help to protect yourself against cancer and live a healthier, happier life. Reduce Your Cancer Risk includes the most up-to-date information on: Personal risk assessment Lifestyle changes Preventive health strategies Genetic counseling Preventive anti-cancer medications
Category: Health & Fitness

Risk A Very Short Introduction

Author : Baruch Fischhoff
ISBN : 9780191620249
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 40.73 MB
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We find risks everywhere—from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
Category: Business & Economics

Communication And Engagement With Science And Technology

Author : John K. Gilbert
ISBN : 9781136662683
Genre : Education
File Size : 88.60 MB
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Science communication seeks to engage individuals and groups with evidence-based information about the nature, outcomes, and social consequences of science and technology. This text provides an overview of this burgeoning field ─ the issues with which it deals, important influences that affect it, the challenges that it faces. It introduces readers to the research-based literature about science communication and shows how it relates to actual or potential practice. A "Further Exploration" section provides suggestions for activities that readers might do to explore the issues raised. Organized around five themes, each chapter addresses a different aspect of science communication: • Models of science communication – theory into practice • Challenges in communicating science • Major themes in science communication • Informal learning • Communication of contemporary issues in science and society Relevant for all those interested in and concerned about current issues and developments in science communication, this volume is an ideal text for courses and a must-have resource for faculty, students, and professionals in this field.
Category: Education

Rationality For Mortals

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
ISBN : 9780199890125
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 88.78 MB
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Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.
Category: Philosophy

Introducing Statistics

Author : Eileen Magnello
ISBN : 9781848317734
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 79.61 MB
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From the medicine we take, the treatments we receive, the aptitude and psychometric tests given by employers, the cars we drive, the clothes we wear to even the beer we drink, statistics have given shape to the world we inhabit. For the media, statistics are routinely 'damning', 'horrifying', or, occasionally, 'encouraging'. Yet, for all their ubiquity, most of us really don't know what to make of statistics. Exploring the history, mathematics, philosophy and practical use of statistics, Eileen Magnello - accompanied by Bill Mayblin's intelligent graphic illustration - traces the rise of statistics from the ancient Babylonians, Egyptians and Chinese, to the censuses of Romans and the Greeks, and the modern emergence of the term itself in Europe. She explores the 'vital statistics' of, in particular, William Farr, and the mathematical statistics of Karl Pearson and R.A. Fisher.She even tells how knowledge of statistics can prolong one's life, as it did for evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, given eight months to live after a cancer diagnoses in 1982 - and he lived until 2002. This title offers an enjoyable, surprise-filled tour through a subject that is both fascinating and crucial to understanding our world.
Category: Mathematics

Compromising The Ideals Of Science

Author : R. Sassower
ISBN : 9781137519429
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 21.69 MB
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This books examines the conditions under which scientists compromised the ideals of science, and elucidates these with reference to the challenges of profit motives and national security concerns. The book also offers suggestions for changing the political and economic conditions under which the integrity of science and its ethos can be practiced.
Category: Social Science

The Futurist

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015068949687
Genre : Business forecasting
File Size : 36.69 MB
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Category: Business forecasting