Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis

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Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis

Author : Louis A. Cox
ISBN : 9781118217160
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 52.96 MB
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Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on recent advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an easily accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Emphasizing topics not traditionally found in DA literature, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science and includes developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges, including online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to provide more-or-less plausible explanations for available data and recommended actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what to do when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr. PhD, is Chief Sciences Officer of NextHealth Technologies, a Denver-based health care advanced analytics software company and President of Cox Associates, Inc., a Denver-based applied research company specializing in quantitative health risk assessment, risk analysis, causal modeling, and operations research. Dr. Cox is also Clinical Professor of Biostatistics and Informatics at the University of Colorado at Denver, a member of the National Academy of Engineering, and Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal.
Category: Business & Economics

Quantitative Risk Analysis Of Air Pollution Health Effects

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
ISBN : 3030573575
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 50.69 MB
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This book highlights quantitative risk assessment and modeling methods for assessing health risks caused by air pollution, as well as characterizing and communicating remaining uncertainties. It shows how to apply modern data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning, causal analytics, mathematical modeling, and risk analysis to better quantify human health risks caused by environmental and occupational exposures to air pollutants. The adverse health effects that are caused by air pollution, and preventable by reducing it, instead of merely being statistically associated with exposure to air pollution (and with other many conditions, from cold weather to low income) have proved to be difficult to quantify with high precision and confidence, largely because correlation is not causation. This book shows how to use recent advances in causal analytics and risk analysis to determine more accurately how reducing exposures affects human health risks. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects is divided into three parts. Part I focuses mainly on quantitative simulation modelling of biological responses to exposures and resulting health risks. It considers occupational risks from asbestos and crystalline silica as examples, showing how dynamic simulation models can provide insights into more effective policies for protecting worker health. Part II examines limitations of regression models and the potential to instead apply machine learning, causal analysis, and Bayesian network learning methods for more accurate quantitative risk assessment, with applications to occupational risks from inhalation exposures. Finally, Part III examines applications to public health risks from air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. The book applies freely available browser analytics software and data sets that allow readers to download data and carry out many of the analyses described, in addition to applying the techniques discussed to their own data. http://cox-associates.com:8899/
Category: Business & Economics

Science And Decisions

Author : National Research Council
ISBN : 9780309120463
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 80.15 MB
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Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.
Category: Political Science

Recent Trends In Decision Science And Management

Author : Tao-Sheng Wang
ISBN : 9789811535888
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 81.34 MB
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This book discusses an emerging field of decision science that focuses on business processes and systems used to extract knowledge from large volumes of data to provide significant insights for crucial decisions in critical situations. It presents studies employing computing techniques like machine learning, which explore decision-making for cross-platforms that contain heterogeneous data associated with complex assets, leadership, and team coordination. It also reveals the advantages of using decision sciences with management-oriented problems. The book includes a selection of the best papers presented at the 2nd International Conference on Decision Science and Management (ICDSM 2019), held at Hunan International Economics University, China, on 20–21 September 2019.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Decision Science And Social Risk Management

Author : M.W Merkhofer
ISBN : 9789400946989
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 42.82 MB
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Economists, decision analysts, management scientists, and others have long argued that government should take a more scientific approach to decision making. Pointing to various theories for prescribing and rational izing choices, they have maintained that social goals could be achieved more effectively and at lower costs if government decisions were routinely subjected to analysis. Now, government policy makers are putting decision science to the test. Recent government actions encourage and in some cases require government decisions to be evaluated using formally defined principles 01' rationality. Will decision science pass tbis test? The answer depends on whether analysts can quickly and successfully translate their theories into practical approaches and whether these approaches promote the solution of the complex, highly uncertain, and politically sensitive problems that are of greatest concern to government decision makers. The future of decision science, perhaps even the nation's well-being, depends on the outcome. A major difficulty for the analysts who are being called upon by government to apply decision-aiding approaches is that decision science has not yet evolved a universally accepted methodology for analyzing social decisions involving risk. Numerous approaches have been proposed, including variations of cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, and applied social welfare theory. Each of these, however, has its limitations and deficiencies and none has a proven track record for application to govern ment decisions involving risk. Cost-benefit approaches have been exten sively applied by the government, but most applications have been for decisions that were largely risk-free.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Advances In Optimization And Decision Science For Society Services And Enterprises

Author : Massimo Paolucci
ISBN : 9783030349608
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 69.81 MB
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The contributions included in the volume are drawn from presentations at ODS2019 – International Conference on Optimization and Decision Science, which was the 49th annual meeting of the Italian Operations Research Society (AIRO) held at Genoa, Italy, on 4-7 September 2019. This book presents very recent results in the field of Optimization and Decision Science. While the book is addressed primarily to the Operations Research (OR) community, the interdisciplinary contents ensure that it will also be of very high interest for scholars and researchers from many scientific disciplines, including computer sciences, economics, mathematics, and engineering. Operations Research is known as the discipline of optimization applied to real-world problems and to complex decision-making fields. The focus is on mathematical and quantitative methods aimed at determining optimal or near-optimal solutions in acceptable computation times. This volume not only presents theoretical results but also covers real industrial applications, making it interesting for practitioners facing decision problems in logistics, manufacturing production, and services. Readers will accordingly find innovative ideas from both a methodological and an applied perspective.
Category: Business & Economics

The Future Of Risk Management

Author : Howard Kunreuther
ISBN : 9780812251326
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 58.22 MB
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Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Västfjäll, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.
Category: Political Science

Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Risk Management And Decision Making

Author : V.T. Covello
ISBN : 9781468453171
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 45.81 MB
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The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Advances In Computer Science And Information Engineering

Author : David Jin
ISBN : 9783642302237
Genre : Computers
File Size : 69.37 MB
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CSIE2012 is an integrated conference concentrating its focus on Computer Science and Information Engineering . In the proceeding, you can learn much more knowledge about Computer Science and Information Engineering of researchers from all around the world. The main role of the proceeding is to be used as an exchange pillar for researchers who are working in the mentioned fields. In order to meet the high quality of Springer, AISC series, the organization committee has made their efforts to do the following things. Firstly, poor quality paper has been refused after reviewing course by anonymous referee experts. Secondly, periodically review meetings have been held around the reviewers about five times for exchanging reviewing suggestions. Finally, the conference organizers had several preliminary sessions before the conference. Through efforts of different people and departments, the conference will be successful and fruitful.
Category: Computers

Advances In Statistical Methods For The Health Sciences

Author : Jean-Louis Auget
ISBN : 081764542X
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 37.93 MB
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Statistical methods have become an increasingly important and integral part of research in the health sciences. Many sophisticated methodologies have been developed for specific applications and problems. This self-contained comprehensive volume covers a wide range of topics pertaining to new statistical methods in the health sciences, including epidemiology, pharmacovigilance, quality of life, survival analysis, and genomics. The book will serve the health science community as well as practitioners, researchers, and graduate students in applied probability, statistics, and biostatistics.
Category: Mathematics

Recent Advances In Computer Science And Information Engineering

Author : Zhihong Qian
ISBN : 9783642257896
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 63.22 MB
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CSIE 2011 is an international scientific Congress for distinguished scholars engaged in scientific, engineering and technological research, dedicated to build a platform for exploring and discussing the future of Computer Science and Information Engineering with existing and potential application scenarios. The congress has been held twice, in Los Angeles, USA for the first and in Changchun, China for the second time, each of which attracted a large number of researchers from all over the world. The congress turns out to develop a spirit of cooperation that leads to new friendship for addressing a wide variety of ongoing problems in this vibrant area of technology and fostering more collaboration over the world. The congress, CSIE 2011, received 2483 full paper and abstract submissions from 27 countries and regions over the world. Through a rigorous peer review process, all submissions were refereed based on their quality of content, level of innovation, significance, originality and legibility. 688 papers have been accepted for the international congress proceedings ultimately.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Risk Evaluation And Management

Author : V.T. Covello
ISBN : 9781461321033
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 65.64 MB
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Public attention has focused in recent years on an array of technological risks to health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, responsibilities for technological risk as sessment, evaluation, and management have grown in both the public and private sectors because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks inherent in modem society. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problems of assessing and balancing risks, costs, and benefits. The need to help society cope with technological risks has given rise to a new intellectual endeavor: the social and behavioral study of issues in risk evaluation and risk management. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many fields. Analyzing social and behavioral issues requires the efforts of political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, econ omists, psychologists, philosophers, and policy analysts, among others.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Applied Risk Analysis For Guiding Homeland Security Policy And Decisions

Author : Samrat Chatterjee
ISBN : 1119287464
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 51.83 MB
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Presents various challenges faced by security policy makers and risk analysts, and mathematical approaches that inform homeland security policy development and decision support Compiled by a group of highly qualified editors, this book provides a clear connection between risk science and homeland security policy making and includes top-notch contributions that uniquely highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions. Featuring discussions on various challenges faced in homeland security risk analysis, the book seamlessly divides the subject of risk analysis for homeland security into manageable chapters, which are organized by the concept of risk-informed decisions, methodology for applying risk analysis, and relevant examples and case studies. Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions offers an enlightening overview of risk analysis methods for homeland security. For instance, it presents readers with an exploration of radiological and nuclear risk assessment, along with analysis of uncertainties in radiological and nuclear pathways. It covers the advances in risk analysis for border security, as well as for cyber security. Other topics covered include: strengthening points of entry; systems modeling for rapid containment and casualty mitigation; and disaster preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience. Highlights how risk analysis helps in the decision-making process for homeland security policy Presents specific examples that detail how various risk analysis methods provide decision support for homeland security policy makers and risk analysts Describes numerous case studies from academic, government, and industrial perspectives that apply risk analysis methods for addressing challenges within the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Offers detailed information regarding each of the five DHS missions: prevent terrorism and enhance security; secure and manage our borders; enforce and administer our immigration laws; safeguard and secure cyberspace; and strengthen national preparedness and resilience Discusses the various approaches and challenges faced in homeland risk analysis and identifies improvements and methodological advances that influenced DHS to adopt an increasingly risk-informed basis for decision-making Written by top educators and professionals who clearly illustrate the link between risk science and homeland security policy making Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions is an excellent textbook and/or supplement for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses related to homeland security risk analysis. It will also be an extremely beneficial resource and reference for homeland security policy analysts, risk analysts, and policymakers from private and public sectors, as well as researchers, academics, and practitioners who utilize security risk analysis methods.
Category: Political Science

Toxicity Pathway Based Risk Assessment

Author : National Research Council
ISBN : 9780309154222
Genre : Nature
File Size : 74.12 MB
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In 2007, the National Research Council envisioned a new paradigm in which biologically important perturbations in key toxicity pathways would be evaluated with new methods in molecular biology, bioinformatics, computational toxicology, and a comprehensive array of in vitro tests based primarily on human biology. Although some considered the vision too optimistic with respect to the promise of the new science, no one can deny that a revolution in toxicity testing is under way. New approaches are being developed, and data are being generated. As a result, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) expects a large influx of data that will need to be evaluated. EPA also is faced with tens of thousands of chemicals on which toxicity information is incomplete and emerging chemicals and substances that will need risk assessment and possible regulation. Therefore, the agency asked the National Research Council to convene a symposium to stimulate discussion on the application of the new approaches and data in risk assessment. The symposium was held on May 11-13, 2009, in Washington, DC, and included presentations and discussion sessions on pathway-based approaches for hazard identification, applications of new approaches to mode-of-action analyses, the challenges to and opportunities for risk assessment in the changing paradigm, and future directions.
Category: Nature

Intelligence Analysis For Tomorrow

Author : National Research Council
ISBN : 9780309210942
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 55.10 MB
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The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Category: Social Science

Emerging Methods In Predictive Analytics Risk Management And Decision Making

Author : Hsu, William H.
ISBN : 9781466650640
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 63.75 MB
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Decision making tools are essential for the successful outcome of any organization. Recent advances in predictive analytics have aided in identifying particular points of leverage where critical decisions can be made. Emerging Methods in Predictive Analytics: Risk Management and Decision Making provides an interdisciplinary approach to predictive analytics; bringing together the fields of business, statistics, and information technology for effective decision making. Managers, business professionals, and decision makers in diverse fields will find the applications and cases presented in this text essential in providing new avenues for risk assessment, management, and predicting the future outcomes of their decisions.
Category: Business & Economics

Advances In Computer Science And Its Applications

Author : Hwa Young Jeong
ISBN : 9783642416743
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 72.8 MB
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These proceedings focus on various aspects of computer science and its applications, thus providing an opportunity for academic and industry professionals to discuss the latest issues and progress in this and related areas. The book includes theory and applications alike.
Category: Mathematics

Cross Disciplinary Advances In Human Computer Interaction User Modeling Social Computing And Adaptive Interfaces

Author : Zaphiris, Panayiotis
ISBN : 9781605661438
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 88.10 MB
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"This book develops new models and methodologies for describing user behavior, analyzing their needs and expectations and thus successfully designing user friendly systems"--Provided by publisher.
Category: Business & Economics

Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
ISBN : 9783540684367
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 67.30 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Category: Business & Economics