ASSET PRICE DYNAMICS VOLATILITY AND PREDICTION

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Asset Price Dynamics Volatility And Prediction

Author : Stephen J. Taylor
ISBN : 1400839254
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 73.20 MB
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This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.
Category: Business & Economics

Implicit Volatilities

Author : Robert Schott
ISBN : 9783836621113
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 83.61 MB
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Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: Volatility is a crucial factor widely followed in the financial world. It is not only the single unknown determinant in the Black & Scholes model to derive a theoretical option price, but also the fact that portfolios can be diversified and hedged with volatility makes it a topic, which is crucial to understand for market participants comprising a wide group of private investors and professional traders as well as issuers of derivative products upon volatility. The year 1973 was in several respects a crucial year for implicit volatility. The breakdown of the Bretton-Wood-System paved the way for derivative instruments, because of the beginning era of floating currencies. Furthermore Fischer Black and Myron Samuel Scholes published in 1973 the ground breaking Black & Scholes (BS) model in the Journal of Political Economy. This model was adopted in 1975 at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which also was founded in the year 1973, for pricing options. Especially since 1973 volatility has become a tremendously debated topic in financial literature with continually new insights in short-time periods. Volatility is a central feature of option-pricing models and emerged per se as an independent asset class for investment purposes. The implicit volatility, the topic of the thesis, is a market indicator widely used by all option market practitioners. In the thesis the focus lies on the implicit (implied) volatility (IV). It is the estimation of the volatility that perfectly explains the option price, given all other variables, including the price of the underlying asset in context of the BS model. At the start the BS model, which is the theoretical basic of model-specific IV models, and its variations are discussed. In the concept of volatility IV is defined and the way it is computed is given as well as a look on historical volatility. Afterwards the implied volatility surface (IVS) is presented, which is a non-flat surface, a contradiction to the ideal BS assumptions. Furthermore, reasons of the change of the implied volatility function (IVF) and the term structure are discussed. The model specific IV model is then compared to other possible volatility forecast models. Then the model-free IV methodology is presented with a step-to-step example of the calculation of the widely followed CBOE Volatility Index VIX. Finally the VIX term structure and the relevance of the IV in practice are shown up. To ensure a good [...]
Category: Business & Economics

Chaos And Complexity Theory In World Politics

Author : Erçetin, ?efika ?ule
ISBN : 9781466660717
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 49.46 MB
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As an important research field in mathematics, chaos theory impacts many different disciplines such as physics, engineering, economics, and biology. Most recently, however, chaos theory has also been applied to the social sciences, helping to explain the complex and interdependent nature of international politics. Chaos and Complexity Theory in World Politics aims to bring attention to new developments in global politics within the last few years. Demonstrating various issues in international relations and the application of chaos theory within this field, this publication serves as an essential reference for researchers and professionals, as well as useful educational material for academicians and students.
Category: Political Science

Computational Linguistics And Intelligent Text Processing

Author : Alexander Gelbukh
ISBN : 9783642121159
Genre : Computers
File Size : 44.87 MB
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Includes the proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Text Processing, held in IaAui, Romania, in March 2010. This title covers topics such as: lexical resources, syntax and parsing, word sense disambiguation and named entity recognition, semantics and dialog, and humor and emotions.
Category: Computers

Financial And Macroeconomic Connectedness

Author : Francis X. Diebold
ISBN : 9780199338320
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 67.98 MB
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Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Category: Business & Economics

Portfolio Risk Analysis

Author : Gregory Connor
ISBN : 1400835291
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 66.39 MB
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Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.
Category: Business & Economics

Speculative Influences On Commodity Futures Prices 2006 2008

Author : Christopher L. Gilbert
ISBN : WISC:89119255552
Genre : Commodity exchanges
File Size : 20.28 MB
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This paper examines the possible price impact of speculative bubbles and index-based investment activity on commodity futures prices over 2006-2008. I look specifically at crude oil, three non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper and nickel) and three agricultural commodities (wheat, corn and soybeans). There is significant evidence for periods of explosive bubble behaviour in the copper market where I find three separate bubbles. I also identify a bubble in the soybeans market. The evidence for bubble behaviour is weaker for crude oil and nickel. Aluminium, corn and wheat appear to have been bubble-free. I also examine the effects of index-based investment on the same markets. There is strong evidence that index-based investment did contribute to the rises in oil and metals prices over 2006-2008 but weaker evidence for similar effects on grains prices. The maximum impact may have been to raise prices by the order of 15 per cent.
Category: Commodity exchanges

Commodity Market Review 2009 2010

Author : Food and Agriculture Organization (Fao)
ISBN : 9251065527
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 25.55 MB
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The biennial publication Commodity Market Review (CMR) analyses important agricultural commodity market developments likely to have significant implications for FAO member countries, both developed and developing. The significant food price increases of 2007-08 and their negative effect on food security and poverty in developing countries prompted a shift in policy thinking towards making global markets less fragile and more resilient. This biennial CMR is devoted to exploring a variety of issues relevant to the recent price surge. It focuses on a number of key topics that feature highly in discussions among analysts and policy-makers and discusses a number of policy options, both international and domestic. It also draws a number of lessons from the price episode and the policy reactions. The articles included in this CMR are published as a contribution of FAO to the ongoing policy debate on food price surges, as well as to increase general awareness of the relevant issues and provide policy guidelines.
Category: Technology & Engineering