The Principles Of Uncertainty

Author : Maira Kalman
ISBN : 159420134X
Genre : Art
File Size : 69.90 MB
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A narrative travelogue told in handwritten text and illustrations presents the creator's idiosyncratic worldview on a broad range of topics, from personal identity and happiness to the reasons for war and the delights of candy. 100,000 first printing.
Category: Art

Principles Of Uncertainty

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
ISBN : 9781439861615
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 76.66 MB
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An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics – the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discussion of maximization of expected utility The basics of Markov Chain Monte Carlo computing techniques Problems involving more than one decision-maker Written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples, Principles of Uncertainty introduces the most compelling parts of mathematics, computing, and philosophy as they bear on statistics. Although many books present the computation of a variety of statistics and algorithms while barely skimming the philosophical ramifications of subjective probability, this book takes a different tack. By addressing how to think about uncertainty, this book gives readers the intuition and understanding required to choose a particular method for a particular purpose.
Category: Mathematics

Essential Scrum

Author : Kenneth S. Rubin
ISBN : 9783826690471
Genre : Computers
File Size : 29.73 MB
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Umfassendes Scrum-Wissen aus der Praxis Mit Vorworten von Mike Cohn und Ron Jeffries Umfassendes Scrum-Wissen auf Team-, Produkt- und Portfolio-Ebene Kernkonzepte, Rollen, Planung und Sprints ausführlich erläutert Auch geeignet zur Vorbereitung auf die Scrum-Zertifizierung Aus dem Inhalt: 1. Teil: Kernkonzepte Scrum-Framework Agile Prinzipien Sprints Anforderungen und User Stories Das Product Backlog Schätzungen und Velocity Technische Schulden 2. Teil: Rollen Product Owner ScrumMaster Entwicklungsteam Strukturen des Scrum-Teams Manager 3. Teil: Planung Scrum-Planungsprinzipien Mehrstufige Planung Portfolio-Planung Visionsfindung/Produktplanung Release-Planung 4. Teil: Sprints Sprint-Planung Sprint-Ausführung Sprint Review Sprint-Retrospektive Dieses Buch beschreibt das Wesen von Scrum – die Dinge, die Sie wissen müssen, wenn Sie Scrum erfolgreich einsetzen wollen, um innovative Produkte und Dienstleistungen zu entwickeln. Es ist entstanden, weil der Autor Kenneth S. Rubin als Agile- und Scrum-Berater oft nach einem Referenzbuch für Scrum gefragt worden ist – einem Buch, das einen umfassenden Überblick über das Scrum-Framework bietet und darüber hinaus die beliebtesten Ansätze für die Anwendung von Scrum präsentiert. Dieses Buch ist der Versuch, die eine entscheidende Quelle für alles Wesentliche über Scrum bereitzustellen. Rubin beleuchtet die Werte, Prinzipien und Praktiken von Scrum und beschreibt bewährte, flexible Ansätze, die Ihnen helfen werden, sie viel effektiver umzusetzen. Dabei liefert er mehr als nur die Grundlagen und weist zudem auf wichtige Probleme hin, die Ihnen auf Ihrem Weg begegnen können. Ob Sie sich nun zum ersten Mal an Scrum versuchen oder es schon seit Jahren benutzen: Dieses Buch weiht Sie in die Geheimnisse des Scrum-Entwicklungsverfahrens ein und vermittelt Ihnen ein umfangreiches Scrum-Wissen auf Team-, Produkt- und Portfolio-Ebene. Für diejenigen, die bereits mit Scrum vertraut sind, eignet es sich als Scrum-Referenz. Rubin hat das Buch nicht für eine bestimmte Scrum-Rolle geschrieben. Stattdessen soll es allen, die direkt oder indirekt mit Scrum zu tun haben, ein gemeinsames Verständnis von Scrum und den Prinzipien, auf denen es beruht, vermitteln. Stellen Sie sich meine Überraschung und mein Entzücken vor, als ich feststellte, dass das Buch praktisch alles behandelt, was man über Scrum wissen muss – sowohl für Anfänger als auch für alte Hasen. Ron Jeffries (aus dem Vorwort) Über den Autor: Kenneth S. Rubin ist zertifizierter Scrum- und Agile-Trainer und -Berater und hilft Unternehmen, ihre Produktentwicklung effektiver und wirtschaftlicher zu gestalten. Er hat inzwischen mehr als 18.000 Menschen in den Bereichen Agile und Scrum, Organisation objektorientierter Projekte und Übergangsmanagement unterwiesen und Hunderten von Unternehmen als Berater zur Seite gestanden. Rubin war der erste Managing Director der weltweit agierenden Scrum Alliance und erfolgreich als Scrum-Product-Owner, ScrumMaster und Entwickler unterwegs.
Category: Computers

Der Marsianer

Author : Andy Weir
ISBN : 9783641144005
Genre : Fiction
File Size : 79.68 MB
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Gestrandet auf dem Mars Der Astronaut Mark Watney war auf dem besten Weg, eine lebende Legende zu werden, schließlich war er der erste Mensch in der Geschichte der Raumfahrt, der je den Mars betreten hat. Nun, sechs Tage später, ist Mark auf dem besten Weg, der erste Mensch zu werden, der auf dem Mars sterben wird: Bei einer Expedition auf dem Roten Planeten gerät er in einen Sandsturm, und als er aus seiner Bewusstlosigkeit erwacht, ist er allein. Auf dem Mars. Ohne Ausrüstung. Ohne Nahrung. Und ohne Crew, denn die ist bereits auf dem Weg zurück zur Erde. Es ist der Beginn eines spektakulären Überlebenskampfes ...
Category: Fiction

Uncertainty And Information

Author : George J. Klir
ISBN : 9780471755562
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 67.16 MB
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Deal with information and uncertainty properly and efficiently using tools emerging from generalized information theory Uncertainty and Information: Foundations of Generalized Information Theory contains comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of results that have emerged from a research program begun by the author in the early 1990s under the name "generalized information theory" (GIT). This ongoing research program aims to develop a formal mathematical treatment of the interrelated concepts of uncertainty and information in all their varieties. In GIT, as in classical information theory, uncertainty (predictive, retrodictive, diagnostic, prescriptive, and the like) is viewed as a manifestation of information deficiency, while information is viewed as anything capable of reducing the uncertainty. A broad conceptual framework for GIT is obtained by expanding the formalized language of classical set theory to include more expressive formalized languages based on fuzzy sets of various types, and by expanding classical theory of additive measures to include more expressive non-additive measures of various types. This landmark book examines each of several theories for dealing with particular types of uncertainty at the following four levels: * Mathematical formalization of the conceived type of uncertainty * Calculus for manipulating this particular type of uncertainty * Justifiable ways of measuring the amount of uncertainty in any situation formalizable in the theory * Methodological aspects of the theory With extensive use of examples and illustrations to clarify complex material and demonstrate practical applications, generous historical and bibliographical notes, end-of-chapter exercises to test readers' newfound knowledge, glossaries, and an Instructor's Manual, this is an excellent graduate-level textbook, as well as an outstanding reference for researchers and practitioners who deal with the various problems involving uncertainty and information. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Principles Of Uncertainty And Other Constants

Author : Mitch Levenberg
ISBN : 9780595378340
Genre : Fiction
File Size : 24.45 MB
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Levenberg.has a sharp merciless eye for the hazards that can intervene in the seemingly most innocuous situation. He is utterly fearless in describing the human situation as it is. At the same time humor shines through everything he writes. Alfred Kazin/Literary Critic Mitch Levenberg is a masterful storyteller. His characters walk a very fine line between the humorous and the pathetic, the farcical and the heroic as their everyday lives turn into an eerie high wire act. The results are unforgettable. Paul Violi/Poet and Critic Mitch Levenberg beautifully and poetically captures the sense of dislocation, both literal and figurative a person can feel. He writes of things seen but not quite believed, of moments where the narrator doubts his own perceptions.of the way things are. His grasp of sometimes unseen connections between people and events make his stories more than just travelogues or observations; they help cut deeper, in some cases painfully so, linking events to emotions the characters do not wish to recognize or reckon with. Glenn Raucher/Writer's Voice
Category: Fiction

The Principles Of Quantum Mechanics

Author : Paul Adrien Maurice Dirac
ISBN : 0198520115
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 70.72 MB
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The first edition of this work appeared in 1930, and its originality won it immediate recognition as a classic of modern physical theory. The fourth edition has been bought out to meet a continued demand. Some improvements have been made, the main one being the complete rewriting of the chapter on quantum electrodymanics, to bring in electron-pair creation. This makes it suitable as an introduction to recent works on quantum field theories.
Category: Philosophy

Information Theory And Artificial Intelligence To Manage Uncertainty In Hydrodynamic And Hydrological Models

Author : Abebe Andualem Jemberie
ISBN : 9058096955
Genre : Science
File Size : 82.56 MB
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The complementary nature of physically-based and data-driven models in their demand for physical insight and historical data, leads to the notion that the predictions of a physically-based model can be improved and the associated uncertainty can be systematically reduced through the conjunctive use of a data-driven model of the residuals. The objective of this thesis is to minimise the inevitable mismatch between physically-based models and the actual processes as described by the mismatch between predictions and observations. Principles based on information theory are used to detect the presence and nature of residual information in model errors that might help to develop a data-driven model of the residuals by treating the gap between the process and its (physically-based) model as a separate process. The complementary modelling approach is applied to various hydrodynamic and hydrological models to forecast the expected errors and accuracy, using neural network and fuzzy rule-based models. Complementary modelling offers the opportunity of incorporating processes and data that are not considered by the model, without affecting the routine operation of physically-based models. The possibility that information may be obtained which will help to improve the physically-based model is also demonstrated.
Category: Science