THE PRINCIPLES OF UNCERTAINTY

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The Principles Of Uncertainty

Author : Maira Kalman
ISBN : 0143116460
Genre : Art
File Size : 60.65 MB
Format : PDF
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A narrative travelogue told in handwritten text and illustrations presents the creator's idiosyncratic worldview on a broad range of topics, from personal identity and happiness to the reasons for war and the delights of candy. 100,000 first printing.
Category: Art

The Principles Of Uncertainty

Author : Maira Kalman
ISBN : 159420134X
Genre : Art
File Size : 54.62 MB
Format : PDF
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A narrative travelogue told in handwritten text and illustrations presents the creator's idiosyncratic worldview on a broad range of topics, from personal identity and happiness to the reasons for war and the delights of candy. 100,000 first printing.
Category: Art

Principles Of Uncertainty

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
ISBN : 9781439861615
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 49.41 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics – the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discussion of maximization of expected utility The basics of Markov Chain Monte Carlo computing techniques Problems involving more than one decision-maker Written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples, Principles of Uncertainty introduces the most compelling parts of mathematics, computing, and philosophy as they bear on statistics. Although many books present the computation of a variety of statistics and algorithms while barely skimming the philosophical ramifications of subjective probability, this book takes a different tack. By addressing how to think about uncertainty, this book gives readers the intuition and understanding required to choose a particular method for a particular purpose.
Category: Mathematics

Principles Of Risk Analysis

Author : Charles Yoe
ISBN : 9781439857502
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 30.61 MB
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In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Maira Kalman

Author : Donna Ghelerter
ISBN : STANFORD:36105215490140
Genre : Art
File Size : 76.17 MB
Format : PDF
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Presents the paintings, drawings, embroidery, and other works of Maira Kalman, and includes essays on how her art showcases the extraordinary from the ordinary.
Category: Art

Looking At Lincoln

Author : Maira Kalman
ISBN : 9781101648377
Genre : Juvenile Nonfiction
File Size : 42.83 MB
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Abraham Lincoln is one of the first giants of history children are introduced to, and now Maira Kalman brings him to life with her trademark style and enthusiasm. Lincoln's legacy is everywhere - there he is on your penny and five-dollar bill. And we are still the United States because Lincoln helped hold them together. But who was he, really? The little girl in this book wants to find out. Among the many other things, she discovers our sixteenth president was a man who believed in freedom for all, had a dog named Fido, loved Mozart, apples, and his wife's vanilla cake, and kept his notes in his hat. From his boyhood in a log cabin to his famous presidency and untimely death, Kalman shares Lincoln's remarkable life with young readers in a fresh and exciting way.
Category: Juvenile Nonfiction

Principles Of Modeling Uncertainties In Spatial Data And Spatial Analyses

Author : Wenzhong Shi
ISBN : 1420059289
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 89.77 MB
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When compared to classical sciences such as math, with roots in prehistory, and physics, with roots in antiquity, geographical information science (GISci) is the new kid on the block. Its theoretical foundations are therefore still developing and data quality and uncertainty modeling for spatial data and spatial analysis is an important branch of that theory. Principles of Modeling Uncertainties in Spatial Data and Spatial Analyses outlines the foundational principles and supplies a firm grasp of the disciplines’ theoretical underpinnings. Comprehensive, Systematic Review of Methods for Handling Uncertainties The book summarizes the principles of modeling uncertainty of spatial data and spatial analysis, and then introduces the developed methods for handling uncertainties in spatial data and modeling uncertainties in spatial models. Building on this foundation, the book goes on to explore modeling uncertainties in spatial analyses and describe methods for presentation of data as quality information. Progressing from basic to advanced topics, the organization of the contents reflects the four major theoretical breakthroughs in uncertainty modeling: advances in spatial object representation, uncertainty modeling for static spatial data to dynamic spatial analyses, uncertainty modeling for spatial data to spatial models, and error description of spatial data to spatial data quality control. Determine Fitness-of-Use for Your Applications Modeling uncertainties is essential for the development of geographic information science. Uncertainties always exist in GIS and are then propagated in the results of any spatial analysis. The book delineates how GIS can be a better tool for decision-making and demonstrates how the methods covered can be used to control the data quality of GIS products.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Beloved Dog

Author : Maira Kalman
ISBN : 9780143109884
Genre : Art
File Size : 67.82 MB
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"Dogs have lessons for us all. In Beloved Dog, renowned artist and author Maira Kalman illuminates our cherished companions as only she can. From the dogs lovingly illustrated in her acclaimed children's books to the real-life pets who inspire her still, Kalman's Beloved Dog is joyful, beautifully illustrated, and, as always, deeply philosophical."--
Category: Art

Robust Design Methodology For Reliability

Author : Bo Bergman
ISBN : 9780470748800
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 50.30 MB
Format : PDF, Docs
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Based on deep theoretical as well as practical experience in Reliability and Quality Sciences, Robust Design Methodology for Reliability constructively addresses practical reliability problems. It offers a comprehensive design theory for reliability, utilizing robust design methodology and six sigma frameworks. In particular, the relation between un-reliability and variation and uncertainty is explored and reliability improvement measures in early product development stages are suggested. Many companies today utilise design for Six Sigma (DfSS) for strategic improvement of the design process, but often without explicitly describing the reliability perspective; this book explains how reliability design can relate to and work with DfSS and illustrates this with real–world problems. The contributors advocate designing for robustness, i.e. insensitivity to variation in the early stages of product design development. Methods for rational treatment of uncertainties in model assumptions are also presented. This book promotes a new approach to reliability thinking that addresses the design process and proneness to failure in the design phase via sensitivity to variation and uncertainty; includes contributions from both academics and industry practitioners with a broad scope of expertise, including quality science, mathematical statistics and reliability engineering; takes the innovative approach of promoting the study of variation and uncertainty as a basis for reliability work; includes case studies and illustrative examples that translate the theory into practice. Robust Design Methodology for Reliability provides a starting point for new thinking in practical reliability improvement work that will appeal to advanced designers and reliability specialists in academia and industry including fatigue engineers, product development and process/ quality professionals, especially those interested in and/ or using the DfSS framework.
Category: Technology & Engineering