THE BLACK SWAN SECOND EDITION THE IMPACT OF THE HIGHLY IMPROBABLE WITH A NEW SECTION ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY INCERTO

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The Black Swan Second Edition

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 0679604189
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 51.78 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Mobi
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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
Category: Business & Economics

The Black Swan

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 1588365832
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 81.44 MB
Format : PDF
Download : 391
Read : 1038

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.
Category: Business & Economics

Everydata

Author : John H. Johnson
ISBN : 9781351861830
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 46.27 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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While everyone is talking about "big data," the truth is that understanding the "little data"--the stats that underlie newspaper headlines, stock reports, weather forecasts, and so on--is what helps you make smarter decisions at work, at home, and in every aspect of your life. The average person consumes approximately 30 gigabytes of data every single day, but has no idea how to interpret it correctly. EVERYDATA explains, through the eyes of an expert economist and statistician, how to decipher the small bytes of data we consume in a day. EVERYDATA is filled with countless examples of people misconstruing data--with results that range from merely frustrating to catastrophic: The space shuttle Challenger exploded in part because the engineers were reviewing a limited sample set. Millions of women avoid caffeine during pregnancy because they interpret correlation as causation. Attorneys faced a $1 billion jury verdict because of outlier data. Each chapter highlights one commonly misunderstood data concept, using both realworld and hypothetical examples from a wide range of topics, including business, politics, advertising, law, engineering, retail, parenting, and more. You'll find the answer to the question--"Now what?"--along with concrete ways you can use this information to immediately start making smarter decisions, today and every day.
Category: Business & Economics

Summary Of Antifragile Things That Gain From Disorder

Author : Paul Adams
ISBN : PKEY:6610000104093
Genre : Study Aids
File Size : 50.48 MB
Format : PDF
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Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Conversation Starters The Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb released his bestselling book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder in 2012. This book is part of the Incerto series. Taleb investigates the phenomena of uncertainty, luck, opacity, human error, probability, risk and decision-making in a world we humans barely understand. Human bones get stronger when subjected to tension and stress. Rumors and riots intensify when repressed. Many things in this life benefit from disorder, volatility, stress, and turmoil. What Taleb defined as ‘antifragile’ is a category that not only gains from chaos but also need chaos to survive and thrive. Newsweek praises Teleb’s bold book on the reason why we should “embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error.” They add that this book “may just change our lives.” The Economist praises Antifragile and describes this book, “ambitious and thought-provoking.” A Brief Look Inside: EVERY GOOD BOOK CONTAINS A WORLD FAR DEEPER than the surface of its pages. The characters and their world come alive, and the characters and its world still live on. Conversation Starters is peppered with questions designed to bring us beneath the surface of the page and invite us into the world that lives on. These questions can be used to create hours of conversation: Foster a deeper understanding of the book Promote an atmosphere of discussion for groups Assist in the study of the book, either individually or corporately Explore unseen realms of the book as never seen before Disclaimer: This book you are about to enjoy is an independent companion resource of the original book, enhancing your experience. If you have not yet purchased a copy of the original book, please do before purchasing this unofficial Conversation Starters. © Copyright 2018 Download your copy now on sale Read it on your PC, Mac, iOS or Android smartphone, tablet devices.
Category: Study Aids

Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds Harriman Definitive Edition

Author : Charles Mackay
ISBN : 9780857197436
Genre :
File Size : 67.77 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one..." Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is the original guide to behavioural psychology - and how manias, follies and superstitions begin, spread and (eventually) pass. A hugely entertaining tour through financial scams and stock market bubbles, alchemical quests and prophecy wars, duelling bouts and relic hunts, the book is as insightful and memorable today as when it was first published almost 180 years ago. This edition comes with an exclusive foreword by Russell Napier, author of Anatomy of the Bear. Harriman Definitive Editions offer the best quality editions of the best financial books of all time. Beautifully typeset in new designs, accompanied by forewords by the best modern financial writers, printed and bound in high-quality hardcovers on acid-free paper - they are essential long-term additions to the portfolio of every investor and trader.
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Author : مالكولم غلادويل
ISBN : 9953294844
Genre : Decision-making
File Size : 52.86 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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Category: Decision-making

Author : Robert Greene
ISBN : 9786035039390
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 87.80 MB
Format : PDF
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لم يتم توفير أي شيءأتقن ملايين القرّاء ما جاء في كتابي كيف تمسك بزمام القوة، لكن الصورة النهائية للسلطة هي الإتقان ذاته. في هذا الكتاب قضى روبرت غرين عمره في دراسة قوانين السلطة والتأثير، وفيه يأخذنا عبر الممر السري للعظمة الذي سار فيه أقوى الرجال في التاريخ؛ فهذا الكتاب يستخلص حكمة العصور ليضيء لنا لأول مرة طريقًا واضحًا وإن كان صعبًا. في داخل كل واحد منا قدرة ليكون أستاذًا. تعلَّم أسرار المجال الذي اخترته. اشترك في تدريب دقيق. امتصَّ المعرفة الخفية التي يمتلكها من لديهم خبرات لعشرات السنين. انطلق بجانب المتنافسين وتفوَّق عليهم بالتألق، وفجِّر الأنماط الجامدة من داخلها. ادرس سلوكات آينشتاين والعمالقة التسعة المعاصرين الذين أجرينا معهم مقابلات لغايات هذا الكتــاب، ثم أطلـــق العنان للشــــغف الكـــــامـــن في داخلك، وكن أستاذًا. العبيكان 2017
Category: Business & Economics

Author : ميلان كونديرا
ISBN : 9789776604599
Genre :
File Size : 27.65 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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الرواية يتمركز خطها السردي حول اربعة شخصيات رئيسية أهمهم توماس بطل الراوية، هذه الشخصيات تتنوع بين الخفة والثقل، تدور الرواية على خلفية أحداث سياسية "ثقيلة" حيث اجتياح روسيا لدولة التشيك خلال الحرب العالمية الثانية، و على خلفية انتشار النظام الشيوعي "الثقيل" كما يظن ، أكثر شخصية تفاعلت معها كانت تريزا، تلك المرأة الثقيلة التي فشلت في ارتداء عباءة الخفة التي يترتديها توماس طوال الوقت، وللحق بارع هو كونديرا في تجسيد صورة الخائن بالشخص الذي يتمتع بالخفة، رغم ان الخطايا هي أكثر ما يثقل الإنسان الفصل الثالث الذي تناول شرح مفصل للمفاهيم بين توماس وسابينا، فعلى الرغم من أنه خلا من أي جانب روائي إلا انه زاد الرواية ثقلاً معنوياً وفكرياً صادم جداً-لأنه جديد في طريقه تناوله- ومبهر جداً جداً في ما حمله من معاني .
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Author : ستيفن بنكر
ISBN :
Genre :
File Size : 89.74 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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