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The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9781101595954
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 30.75 MB
Format : PDF
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"One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Category: Political Science

Signal Processing In Radar Systems

Author : Vyacheslav Tuzlukov
ISBN : 9781351833776
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 61.38 MB
Format : PDF
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An essential task in radar systems is to find an appropriate solution to the problems related to robust signal processing and the definition of signal parameters. Signal Processing in Radar Systems addresses robust signal processing problems in complex radar systems and digital signal processing subsystems. It also tackles the important issue of defining signal parameters. The book presents problems related to traditional methods of synthesis and analysis of the main digital signal processing operations. It also examines problems related to modern methods of robust signal processing in noise, with a focus on the generalized approach to signal processing in noise under coherent filtering. In addition, the book puts forth a new problem statement and new methods to solve problems of adaptation and control by functioning processes. Taking a systems approach to designing complex radar systems, it offers readers guidance in solving optimization problems. Organized into three parts, the book first discusses the main design principles of the modern robust digital signal processing algorithms used in complex radar systems. The second part covers the main principles of computer system design for these algorithms and provides real-world examples of systems. The third part deals with experimental measurements of the main statistical parameters of stochastic processes. It also defines their estimations for robust signal processing in complex radar systems. Written by an internationally recognized professor and expert in signal processing, this book summarizes investigations carried out over the past 30 years. It supplies practitioners, researchers, and students with general principles for designing the robust digital signal processing algorithms employed by complex radar systems.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Jitter Noise And Signal Integrity At High Speed

Author : Mike Peng Li
ISBN : 9780132797191
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 50.82 MB
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State-of-the-art JNB and SI Problem-Solving: Theory, Analysis, Methods, and Applications Jitter, noise, and bit error (JNB) and signal integrity (SI) have become today‘s greatest challenges in high-speed digital design. Now, there’s a comprehensive and up-to-date guide to overcoming these challenges, direct from Dr. Mike Peng Li, cochair of the PCI Express jitter standard committee. One of the field’s most respected experts, Li has brought together the latest theory, analysis, methods, and practical applications, demonstrating how to solve difficult JNB and SI problems in both link components and complete systems. Li introduces the fundamental terminology, definitions, and concepts associated with JNB and SI, as well as their sources and root causes. He guides readers from basic math, statistics, circuit and system models all the way through final applications. Emphasizing clock and serial data communications applications, he covers JNB and SI simulation, modeling, diagnostics, debugging, compliance testing, and much more.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Wdm Systems And Networks

Author : Neophytos (Neo) Antoniades
ISBN : 9781461410935
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 90.89 MB
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Modeling, Simulation, Design and Engineering of WDM Systems and Networks provides readers with the basic skills, concepts, and design techniques used to begin design and engineering of optical communication systems and networks at various layers. The latest semi-analytical system simulation techniques are applied to optical WDM systems and networks, and a review of the various current areas of optical communications is presented. Simulation is mixed with experimental verification and engineering to present the industry as well as state-of-the-art research. This contributed volume is divided into three parts, accommodating different readers interested in various types of networks and applications. The first part of the book presents modeling approaches and simulation tools mainly for the physical layer including transmission effects, devices, subsystems, and systems), whereas the second part features more engineering/design issues for various types of optical systems including ULH, access, and in-building systems. The third part of the book covers networking issues related to the design of provisioning and survivability algorithms for impairment-aware and multi-domain networks. Intended for professional scientists, company engineers, and university researchers, the text demonstrates the effectiveness of computer-aided design when it comes to network engineering and prototyping.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Fixed Broadband Wireless System Design

Author : Harry R. Anderson
ISBN : 9780470861288
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 59.95 MB
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Fixed broadband networks can provide far higher data rates and capacity than the currently envisioned 3G and 4G mobile cellular systems. Achieving higher data rates is due to the unique technical properties of fixed systems, in particular, the use of high gain and adaptive antennas, wide frequency bands, dynamic data rate and channel resource allocation, and advanced multiple access techniques. Fixed Broadband Wireless System Design is a comprehensive presentation of the engineering principles, advanced engineering techniques, and practical design methods for planning and deploying fixed wireless systems, including: Point-to-point LOS and NLOS network design Point-to-point microwave link design including active and passive repeaters Consecutive point and mesh network planning Advanced empirical and physical propagation modeling including ray-tracing Detailed microwave fading models for multipath and rain NLOS (indoor and outdoor) propagation and fading models Propagation environment models including terrain, morphology, buildings, and atmospheric effects Novel mixed application packet traffic modeling for dimensioning network capacity Narrow beam, wide beam, and adaptive (smart) antennas MIMO systems and space-time coding Channel planning including fixed and dynamic channel assignment and dynamic packet assignment IEEE 802.11b and 802.11a (WLAN) system design Free space optic (FSO) link design At present, there are no titles available that provide such a concise presentation of the wide variety of systems, frequency bands, multiple access techniques, and other factors that distinguish fixed wireless systems from mobile wireless systems. Fixed Broadband Wireless System Design is essential reading for design, system and RF engineers involved in the design and deployment of fixed broadband wireless systems, fixed wireless equipment vendors, and academics and postgraduate students in the field.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Detection Of Signals In Noise

Author : Robert N. McDonough
ISBN : 9780080504087
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 39.87 MB
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The Second Edition is an updated revision to the authors highly successful and widely used introduction to the principles and application of the statistical theory of signal detection. This book emphasizes those theories that have been found to be particularly useful in practice including principles applied to detection problems encountered in digital communications, radar, and sonar. Detection processing based upon the fast Fourier transform
Category: Technology & Engineering

Advanced Theory Of Signal Detection

Author : Iickho Song
ISBN : 3540430644
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 31.84 MB
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We have some time ago noticed that finding a book dealing with topics in the ad vanced theory and applications of signal detection is not quite an easy matter. This is contrasted with that there are numerous books on the more general subject of de tection and estimation.Frankly, ourexperience and expertise is only on some partial portions of the theory and recent topics of signal detection. This book is therefore meant to include not all the advanced and interesting topics in the theory and appli cations ofsignal detection, butjust onlysome subsets of them: some such important and interesting topics and issues as distributed signal detection and sequential de tection are not considered only due to our limited knowledge and capacity. The goal we have in mind for this book is to present several advanced topics in signal detection theory and thereby help readers gain novel ideas and insights. In this book, we have tried to completely present in a unified way the theme oflocally optimum detection ofsignals in generalized observations. Among our hope is thus that the readers would be able to understand the concepts and fundamentals of a generalized observation model as applied to signal detection problems. This book will also allow the readers, whether they are students, academics, practitioners, or researchers, to have an expanded view on signal detection.
Category: Mathematics

Signal Processing For Cognitive Radios

Author : Sudharman K. Jayaweera
ISBN : 9781118986769
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 48.74 MB
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This book examines signal processing techniques for cognitive radios. The book is divided into three parts: Part I, is an introduction to cognitive radios and presents a history of the cognitive radio (CR), and introduce their architecture, functionalities, ideal aspects, hardware platforms, and state-of-the-art developments. Dr. Jayaweera also introduces the specific type of CR that has gained the most research attention in recent years: the CR for Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). Part II of the book, Theoretical Foundations, guides the reader from classical to modern theories on statistical signal processing and inference. The author addresses detection and estimation theory, power spectrum estimation, classification, adaptive algorithms (machine learning), and inference and decision processes. Applications to the signal processing, inference and learning problems encountered in cognitive radios are interspersed throughout with concrete and accessible examples. Part III of the book, Signal Processing in Radios, identifies the key signal processing, inference, and learning tasks to be performed by wideband autonomous cognitive radios. The author provides signal processing solutions to each task by relating the tasks to materials covered in Part II. Specialized chapters then discuss specific signal processing algorithms required for DSA and DSS cognitive radios.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Impact Of Littoral Environmental Variability On Acoustic Predictions And Sonar Performance

Author : N. G. Pace
ISBN : 1402008163
Genre : Science
File Size : 62.20 MB
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The limiting influence of the environment on sonar has long been recognised as a major challenge to science and technology. As the area of interest shifts towards the littoral, environmental influences become dominant both in time and space. The manifold challenges encompass prediction, measurement, assessment, and adaptive responses to maximize the effectiveness of systems. Although MCM and ASW activities are dominated in different ways and scales by the environment, both warfare areas have had to consider the significantly changing requirements posed by operations in the littoral. The fundamental scientific issues involved in developing models relating acoustics to the environment are matched in difficulty by the need for data for their validation and eventual practical use for prediction. In many instances the need is for the longer term planning activities. This book and the enclosed CD-ROM are the proceedings of a conference organised by the SACLANT Undersea Research Centre, and held at the Villa Marigola, Lerici, Italy, on 16-20 September 2002. CD-ROM Included: This volume contains a CD-ROM which in addition to an electronically searchable version of the proceedings, has full colour versions of figures which are printed in black and white in the book.
Category: Science