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The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9781101595954
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 37.91 MB
Format : PDF
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.
Category: Political Science

Introduction To Random Signals And Noise

Author : Wim C. Van Etten
ISBN : 9780470024126
Genre : Science
File Size : 37.38 MB
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Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.
Category: Science

Advanced Digital Signal Processing And Noise Reduction

Author : Saeed V. Vaseghi
ISBN : 9780470740163
Genre : Science
File Size : 44.53 MB
Format : PDF
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Digital signal processing plays a central role in the development of modern communication and information processing systems. The theory and application of signal processing is concerned with the identification, modelling and utilisation of patterns and structures in a signal process. The observation signals are often distorted, incomplete and noisy and therefore noise reduction, the removal of channel distortion, and replacement of lost samples are important parts of a signal processing system. The fourth edition of Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction updates and extends the chapters in the previous edition and includes two new chapters on MIMO systems, Correlation and Eigen analysis and independent component analysis. The wide range of topics covered in this book include Wiener filters, echo cancellation, channel equalisation, spectral estimation, detection and removal of impulsive and transient noise, interpolation of missing data segments, speech enhancement and noise/interference in mobile communication environments. This book provides a coherent and structured presentation of the theory and applications of statistical signal processing and noise reduction methods. Two new chapters on MIMO systems, correlation and Eigen analysis and independent component analysis Comprehensive coverage of advanced digital signal processing and noise reduction methods for communication and information processing systems Examples and applications in signal and information extraction from noisy data Comprehensive but accessible coverage of signal processing theory including probability models, Bayesian inference, hidden Markov models, adaptive filters and Linear prediction models Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction is an invaluable text for postgraduates, senior undergraduates and researchers in the fields of digital signal processing, telecommunications and statistical data analysis. It will also be of interest to professional engineers in telecommunications and audio and signal processing industries and network planners and implementers in mobile and wireless communication communities.
Category: Science

Principles Of Random Signal Analysis And Low Noise Design

Author : Roy M. Howard
ISBN : 9780471460831
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 28.24 MB
Format : PDF
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Describes the leading techniques for analyzing noise. Discusses methods that are applicable to periodic signals, aperiodic signals, or random processes over finite or infinite intervals. Provides readers with a useful reference when designing or modeling communications systems.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Noise And Vibration Analysis

Author : Anders Brandt
ISBN : 0470978112
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 89.22 MB
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Noise and Vibration Analysis is a complete and practical guide that combines both signal processing and modal analysis theory with their practical application in noise and vibration analysis. It provides an invaluable, integrated guide for practicing engineers as well as a suitable introduction for students new to the topic of noise and vibration. Taking a practical learning approach, Brandt includes exercises that allow the content to be developed in an academic course framework or as supplementary material for private and further study. Addresses the theory and application of signal analysis procedures as they are applied in modern instruments and software for noise and vibration analysis Features numerous line diagrams and illustrations Accompanied by a web site at www.wiley.com/go/brandt with numerous MATLAB tools and examples. Noise and Vibration Analysis provides an excellent resource for researchers and engineers from automotive, aerospace, mechanical, or electronics industries who work with experimental or analytical vibration analysis and/or acoustics. It will also appeal to graduate students enrolled in vibration analysis, experimental structural dynamics, or applied signal analysis courses.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Signal And Noise

Author : Brian Larkin
ISBN : 0822341085
Genre : History
File Size : 27.7 MB
Format : PDF
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DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div
Category: History

Spectral Analysis Of Signals

Author : Yanwei Wang
ISBN : 9781598290011
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 61.99 MB
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Spectral estimation is important in many fields including astronomy, meteorology, seismology, communications, economics, speech analysis, medical imaging, radar, sonar, and underwater acoustics. Most existing spectral estimation algorithms are devised for uniformly sampled complete-data sequences. However, the spectral estimation for data sequences with missing samples is also important in many applications ranging from astronomical time series analysis to synthetic aperture radar imaging with angular diversity. For spectral estimation in the missing-data case, the challenge is how to extend the existing spectral estimation techniques to deal with these missing-data samples. Recently, nonparametric adaptive filtering based techniques have been developed successfully for various missing-data problems. Collectively, these algorithms provide a comprehensive toolset for the missing-data problem based exclusively on the nonparametric adaptive filter-bank approaches, which are robust and accurate, and can provide high resolution and low sidelobes. In this book, we present these algorithms for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional spectral estimation problems.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Time Series Analysis And Its Applications

Author : Robert H. Shumway
ISBN : 9783319524528
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 34.39 MB
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The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonlinear models, resampling techniques, GARCH models, ARMAX models, stochastic volatility, wavelets, and Markov chain Monte Carlo integration methods. This edition includes R code for each numerical example in addition to Appendix R, which provides a reference for the data sets and R scripts used in the text in addition to a tutorial on basic R commands and R time series. An additional file is available on the book’s website for download, making all the data sets and scripts easy to load into R.
Category: Mathematics