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Die Berechnung Der Zukunft

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9783641112707
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 68.41 MB
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Zuverlässige Vorhersagen sind doch möglich! Nate Silver ist der heimliche Gewinner der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012: ein begnadeter Statistiker, als »Prognose-Popstar« und »Wundernerd« weltberühmt geworden. Er hat die Wahlergebnisse aller 50 amerikanischen Bundesstaaten absolut exakt vorausgesagt – doch damit nicht genug: Jetzt zeigt Nate Silver, wie seine Prognosen in Zukunft Terroranschläge, Umweltkatastrophen und Finanzkrisen verhindern sollen. Gelingt ihm die Abschaffung des Zufalls? Warum werden Wettervorhersagen immer besser, während die Terrorattacken vom 11.09.2001 niemand kommen sah? Warum erkennen Ökonomen eine globale Finanzkrise nicht einmal dann, wenn diese bereits begonnen hat? Das Problem ist nicht der Mangel an Informationen, sondern dass wir die verfügbaren Daten nicht richtig deuten. Zuverlässige Prognosen aber würden uns helfen, Zufälle und Ungewissheiten abzuwehren und unser Schicksal selbst zu bestimmen. Nate Silver zeigt, dass und wie das geht. Erstmals wendet er seine Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung nicht nur auf Wahlprognosen an, sondern auf die großen Probleme unserer Zeit: die Finanzmärkte, Ratingagenturen, Epidemien, Erdbeben, den Klimawandel, den Terrorismus. In all diesen Fällen gibt es zahlreiche Prognosen von Experten, die er überprüft – und erklärt, warum sie meist falsch sind. Gleichzeitig schildert er, wie es gelingen kann, im Rauschen der Daten die wesentlichen Informationen herauszufiltern. Ein unterhaltsamer und spannender Augenöffner!
Category: Business & Economics

The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9781101595954
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 52.59 MB
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Category: Political Science

Detection Of Signals In Noise

Author : Robert N. McDonough
ISBN : 9780080504087
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 59.96 MB
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The Second Edition is an updated revision to the authors highly successful and widely used introduction to the principles and application of the statistical theory of signal detection. This book emphasizes those theories that have been found to be particularly useful in practice including principles applied to detection problems encountered in digital communications, radar, and sonar. Detection processing based upon the fast Fourier transform
Category: Technology & Engineering

Signal Processing In Radar Systems

Author : Vyacheslav Tuzlukov
ISBN : 9781351833776
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 77.83 MB
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An essential task in radar systems is to find an appropriate solution to the problems related to robust signal processing and the definition of signal parameters. Signal Processing in Radar Systems addresses robust signal processing problems in complex radar systems and digital signal processing subsystems. It also tackles the important issue of defining signal parameters. The book presents problems related to traditional methods of synthesis and analysis of the main digital signal processing operations. It also examines problems related to modern methods of robust signal processing in noise, with a focus on the generalized approach to signal processing in noise under coherent filtering. In addition, the book puts forth a new problem statement and new methods to solve problems of adaptation and control by functioning processes. Taking a systems approach to designing complex radar systems, it offers readers guidance in solving optimization problems. Organized into three parts, the book first discusses the main design principles of the modern robust digital signal processing algorithms used in complex radar systems. The second part covers the main principles of computer system design for these algorithms and provides real-world examples of systems. The third part deals with experimental measurements of the main statistical parameters of stochastic processes. It also defines their estimations for robust signal processing in complex radar systems. Written by an internationally recognized professor and expert in signal processing, this book summarizes investigations carried out over the past 30 years. It supplies practitioners, researchers, and students with general principles for designing the robust digital signal processing algorithms employed by complex radar systems.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Jitter Noise And Signal Integrity At High Speed

Author : Mike Peng Li
ISBN : 9780132797191
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 51.81 MB
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State-of-the-art JNB and SI Problem-Solving: Theory, Analysis, Methods, and Applications Jitter, noise, and bit error (JNB) and signal integrity (SI) have become today‘s greatest challenges in high-speed digital design. Now, there’s a comprehensive and up-to-date guide to overcoming these challenges, direct from Dr. Mike Peng Li, cochair of the PCI Express jitter standard committee. One of the field’s most respected experts, Li has brought together the latest theory, analysis, methods, and practical applications, demonstrating how to solve difficult JNB and SI problems in both link components and complete systems. Li introduces the fundamental terminology, definitions, and concepts associated with JNB and SI, as well as their sources and root causes. He guides readers from basic math, statistics, circuit and system models all the way through final applications. Emphasizing clock and serial data communications applications, he covers JNB and SI simulation, modeling, diagnostics, debugging, compliance testing, and much more.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Signal To Noise

Author : Eric S. Nylund
ISBN : 0380792923
Genre : Fiction
File Size : 44.52 MB
Format : PDF
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Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that's eager to do business with humanity -- and its representative. Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora's Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action -- and they're willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth's cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens...and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.
Category: Fiction

Wdm Systems And Networks

Author : Neophytos (Neo) Antoniades
ISBN : 9781461410935
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 65.86 MB
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Modeling, Simulation, Design and Engineering of WDM Systems and Networks provides readers with the basic skills, concepts, and design techniques used to begin design and engineering of optical communication systems and networks at various layers. The latest semi-analytical system simulation techniques are applied to optical WDM systems and networks, and a review of the various current areas of optical communications is presented. Simulation is mixed with experimental verification and engineering to present the industry as well as state-of-the-art research. This contributed volume is divided into three parts, accommodating different readers interested in various types of networks and applications. The first part of the book presents modeling approaches and simulation tools mainly for the physical layer including transmission effects, devices, subsystems, and systems), whereas the second part features more engineering/design issues for various types of optical systems including ULH, access, and in-building systems. The third part of the book covers networking issues related to the design of provisioning and survivability algorithms for impairment-aware and multi-domain networks. Intended for professional scientists, company engineers, and university researchers, the text demonstrates the effectiveness of computer-aided design when it comes to network engineering and prototyping.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Fixed Broadband Wireless System Design

Author : Harry R. Anderson
ISBN : 9780470861288
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 32.25 MB
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Fixed broadband networks can provide far higher data rates and capacity than the currently envisioned 3G and 4G mobile cellular systems. Achieving higher data rates is due to the unique technical properties of fixed systems, in particular, the use of high gain and adaptive antennas, wide frequency bands, dynamic data rate and channel resource allocation, and advanced multiple access techniques. Fixed Broadband Wireless System Design is a comprehensive presentation of the engineering principles, advanced engineering techniques, and practical design methods for planning and deploying fixed wireless systems, including: Point-to-point LOS and NLOS network design Point-to-point microwave link design including active and passive repeaters Consecutive point and mesh network planning Advanced empirical and physical propagation modeling including ray-tracing Detailed microwave fading models for multipath and rain NLOS (indoor and outdoor) propagation and fading models Propagation environment models including terrain, morphology, buildings, and atmospheric effects Novel mixed application packet traffic modeling for dimensioning network capacity Narrow beam, wide beam, and adaptive (smart) antennas MIMO systems and space-time coding Channel planning including fixed and dynamic channel assignment and dynamic packet assignment IEEE 802.11b and 802.11a (WLAN) system design Free space optic (FSO) link design At present, there are no titles available that provide such a concise presentation of the wide variety of systems, frequency bands, multiple access techniques, and other factors that distinguish fixed wireless systems from mobile wireless systems. Fixed Broadband Wireless System Design is essential reading for design, system and RF engineers involved in the design and deployment of fixed broadband wireless systems, fixed wireless equipment vendors, and academics and postgraduate students in the field.
Category: Technology & Engineering