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Risk Assessment With Time To Event Models

Author : Mark Crane
ISBN : 9781420032284
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 52.5 MB
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How can environmental regulators use information on 48-hour toxicity tests to predict the effects of a few minutes of pollution? Or, at the other extreme, what is the relevance of 96-hour toxicity data for organisms that may have been exposed to a pollutant for six months or more? Time to event methods are the key to answering these types of questions. Risk Assessment with Time to Event Models is the first comprehensive treatment of these methods in the context of ecological risk assessment. Leading experts from industry, academia, and government regulatory agencies explain how these methods can be used to extract more useful information from laboratory data than is present in simple summary statistics like 48-h LC50. The book offers a clear introduction to the field through several approaches, from the introductory to the more mathematical. Risk Assessment with Time to Event Models demonstrates the relevance of time in the analysis and reporting of toxicity data through the use of practical examples from the field of environmental toxicology. It also incorporates helpful analogies from other disciplines that commonly use time to event modeling.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Applied Survival Analysis

Author : David W. Hosmer, Jr.
ISBN : 9781118211588
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 66.50 MB
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THE MOST PRACTICAL, UP-TO-DATE GUIDE TO MODELLING AND ANALYZING TIME-TO-EVENT DATA—NOW IN A VALUABLE NEW EDITION Since publication of the first edition nearly a decade ago, analyses using time-to-event methods have increase considerably in all areas of scientific inquiry mainly as a result of model-building methods available in modern statistical software packages. However, there has been minimal coverage in the available literature to9 guide researchers, practitioners, and students who wish to apply these methods to health-related areas of study. Applied Survival Analysis, Second Edition provides a comprehensive and up-to-date introduction to regression modeling for time-to-event data in medical, epidemiological, biostatistical, and other health-related research. This book places a unique emphasis on the practical and contemporary applications of regression modeling rather than the mathematical theory. It offers a clear and accessible presentation of modern modeling techniques supplemented with real-world examples and case studies. Key topics covered include: variable selection, identification of the scale of continuous covariates, the role of interactions in the model, assessment of fit and model assumptions, regression diagnostics, recurrent event models, frailty models, additive models, competing risk models, and missing data. Features of the Second Edition include: Expanded coverage of interactions and the covariate-adjusted survival functions The use of the Worchester Heart Attack Study as the main modeling data set for illustrating discussed concepts and techniques New discussion of variable selection with multivariable fractional polynomials Further exploration of time-varying covariates, complex with examples Additional treatment of the exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic parametric regression models Increased emphasis on interpreting and using results as well as utilizing multiple imputation methods to analyze data with missing values New examples and exercises at the end of each chapter Analyses throughout the text are performed using Stata® Version 9, and an accompanying FTP site contains the data sets used in the book. Applied Survival Analysis, Second Edition is an ideal book for graduate-level courses in biostatistics, statistics, and epidemiologic methods. It also serves as a valuable reference for practitioners and researchers in any health-related field or for professionals in insurance and government.
Category: Mathematics

Perspectives On Biologically Based Cancer Risk Assessment

Author : Vincent James Cogliano
ISBN : 9781461547419
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 67.83 MB
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The first meeting of the NATO/CCMS Pilot Study "Dose-Response Analysis and Biologically-Based Risk assessment for Initiator and Promoter Carcinogens" was held in Rome, Italy, in the spring of 1991, and was followed by annual or bi-annual meetings held in Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, USA, up to the end of 1995; in large part supported by NATO/CCMS grants or fellowships, and organized by Pilot Study participants. The Pilot Study activity has been characterized by a higly collaborative atmosphere, which was essential for a deep and detailed analysis of a problem on which different points of view, methodological approaches and regulations exist in the various member countries. The Pilot Study was aimed at proposing a carcinogenic risk assessment procedure which is based on a detailed analysis of the relevant biological processes, and may also consent the verification of hypotheses. The specific form of theoretical and mathe matical models is identified by considering and using the whole set of objective data available. The multidisciplinary approach of the pilot study is reflected by the struc ture of this book. Each chapter is the result of the cooperation of several authors from to produce a comprehensive manual that includes different countries; its objective was both theoretical and practical information.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Risk Assessment Methods

Author : V.T. Covello
ISBN : 0306443821
Genre : Medical
File Size : 31.34 MB
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A guidebook and reference for risk assessment techniques. It covers basic concepts, and teaches the selection and application of a specific method and the interpretation of its results.
Category: Medical

Department Of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment

Author : Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis
ISBN : 9780309120289
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 86.57 MB
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The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
Category: Political Science

Applied Survival Analysis

Author : David W. Hosmer, Jr.
ISBN : STANFORD:36105025984183
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 69.45 MB
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A Practical, Up-To-Date Guide To Modern Methods In The Analysis Of Time To Event Data. The rapid proliferation of powerful and affordable statistical software packages over the past decade has inspired the development of an array of valuable new methods for analyzing survival time data. Yet there continues to be a paucity of statistical modeling guides geared to the concerns of health-related researchers who study time to event data. This book helps bridge this important gap in the literature. Applied Survival Analysis is a comprehensive introduction to regression modeling for time to event data used in epidemiological, biostatistical, and other health-related research. Unlike other texts on the subject, it focuses almost exclusively on practical applications rather than mathematical theory and offers clear, accessible presentations of modern modeling techniques supplemented with real-world examples and case studies. While the authors emphasize the proportional hazards model, descriptive methods and parametric models are also considered in some detail. Key topics covered in depth include: * Variable selection. * Identification of the scale of continuous covariates. * The role of interactions in the model. * Interpretation of a fitted model. * Assessment of fit and model assumptions. * Regression diagnostics. * Recurrent event models, frailty models, and additive models. * Commercially available statistical software and getting the most out of it. Applied Survival Analysis is an ideal introduction for graduate students in biostatistics and epidemiology, as well as researchers in health-related fields.
Category: Mathematics

The Econometrics Of Individual Risk

Author : Christian Gourieroux
ISBN : 1400829410
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 81.29 MB
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The individual risks faced by banks, insurers, and marketers are less well understood than aggregate risks such as market-price changes. But the risks incurred or carried by individual people, companies, insurance policies, or credit agreements can be just as devastating as macroevents such as share-price fluctuations. A comprehensive introduction, The Econometrics of Individual Risk is the first book to provide a complete econometric methodology for quantifying and managing this underappreciated but important variety of risk. The book presents a course in the econometric theory of individual risk illustrated by empirical examples. And, unlike other texts, it is focused entirely on solving the actual individual risk problems businesses confront today. Christian Gourieroux and Joann Jasiak emphasize the microeconometric aspect of risk analysis by extensively discussing practical problems such as retail credit scoring, credit card transaction dynamics, and profit maximization in promotional mailing. They address regulatory issues in sections on computing the minimum capital reserve for coverage of potential losses, and on the credit-risk measure CreditVar. The book will interest graduate students in economics, business, finance, and actuarial studies, as well as actuaries and financial analysts.
Category: Business & Economics

Bayesian Inference For Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Author : Dana Kelly
ISBN : 1849961875
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 36.96 MB
Format : PDF
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Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment provides a Bayesian foundation for framing probabilistic problems and performing inference on these problems. Inference in the book employs a modern computational approach known as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC approach may be implemented using custom-written routines or existing general purpose commercial or open-source software. This book uses an open-source program called OpenBUGS (commonly referred to as WinBUGS) to solve the inference problems that are described. A powerful feature of OpenBUGS is its automatic selection of an appropriate MCMC sampling scheme for a given problem. The authors provide analysis “building blocks” that can be modified, combined, or used as-is to solve a variety of challenging problems. The MCMC approach used is implemented via textual scripts similar to a macro-type programming language. Accompanying most scripts is a graphical Bayesian network illustrating the elements of the script and the overall inference problem being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment also covers the important topics of MCMC convergence and Bayesian model checking. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment is aimed at scientists and engineers who perform or review risk analyses. It provides an analytical structure for combining data and information from various sources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions used in risk and reliability models.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Security Risk Assessment

Author : Genserik Reniers
ISBN : 9783110497762
Genre : Science
File Size : 20.39 MB
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This book deals with the state-of-the-art of physical security knowledge and research in the chemical and process industries. Legislation differences between Europe and the USA are investigated, followed by an overview of the how, what and why of contemporary security risk assessment in this particular industrial sector. Innovative solutions such as attractiveness calculations and the use of game theory, advancing the present science of adversarial risk analysis, are discussed. The book further stands up for developing and employing dynamic security risk assessments, for instance based on Bayesian networks, and using OR methods to truly move security forward in the chemical and process industries.
Category: Science