RISK ASSESSMENT WITH TIME TO EVENT MODELS

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Risk Assessment With Time To Event Models

Author : Mark Crane
ISBN : 9781420032284
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 26.66 MB
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How can environmental regulators use information on 48-hour toxicity tests to predict the effects of a few minutes of pollution? Or, at the other extreme, what is the relevance of 96-hour toxicity data for organisms that may have been exposed to a pollutant for six months or more? Time to event methods are the key to answering these types of questions. Risk Assessment with Time to Event Models is the first comprehensive treatment of these methods in the context of ecological risk assessment. Leading experts from industry, academia, and government regulatory agencies explain how these methods can be used to extract more useful information from laboratory data than is present in simple summary statistics like 48-h LC50. The book offers a clear introduction to the field through several approaches, from the introductory to the more mathematical. Risk Assessment with Time to Event Models demonstrates the relevance of time in the analysis and reporting of toxicity data through the use of practical examples from the field of environmental toxicology. It also incorporates helpful analogies from other disciplines that commonly use time to event modeling.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Risk Modeling For Hazards And Disasters

Author : Gero Michel
ISBN : 9780128040935
Genre : Science
File Size : 25.42 MB
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Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk. Includes high profile case studies such as the Newcastle earthquake, Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina Provides crucial information on new ideas and platforms that will help address the new demands for risk management and catastrophe risk reporting Presents the theory and practice needed to know how models are created and what is and what is not important in the modeling process Covers relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies
Category: Science

Risk Assessment Methods

Author : V.T. Covello
ISBN : 9781489912169
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 54.69 MB
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Much has already been written about risk assessment. Epidemiologists write books on how risk assessment is used to explore the factors that influence the distribution of disease in populations of people. Toxicologists write books on how risk assess ment involves exposing animals to risk agents and concluding from the results what risks people might experience if similarly exposed. Engineers write books on how risk assessment is utilized to estimate the risks of constructing a new facility such as a nuclear power plant. Statisticians write books on how risk assessment may be used to analyze mortality or accident data to determine risks. There are already many books on risk assessment-the trouble is that they all seem to be about different sUbjects! This book takes another approach. It brings together all the methods for assessing risk into a common framework, thus demonstrating how the various methods relate to one another. This produces four important benefits: • First, it provides a comprehensive reference for risk assessment. This one source offers readers concise explanations of the many methods currently available for describing and quantifying diverse types of risks. • Second, it consistently evaluates and compares available risk assessment methods and identifies their specific strengths and limitations. Understand ing the limitations of risk assessment methods is important. The field is still in its infancy, and the problems with available methods are disappoint ingly numerous. At the same time, risk assessment is being used.
Category: Technology & Engineering

Applied Survival Analysis

Author : David W. Hosmer, Jr.
ISBN : 9781118211588
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 89.26 MB
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THE MOST PRACTICAL, UP-TO-DATE GUIDE TO MODELLING AND ANALYZING TIME-TO-EVENT DATA—NOW IN A VALUABLE NEW EDITION Since publication of the first edition nearly a decade ago, analyses using time-to-event methods have increase considerably in all areas of scientific inquiry mainly as a result of model-building methods available in modern statistical software packages. However, there has been minimal coverage in the available literature to9 guide researchers, practitioners, and students who wish to apply these methods to health-related areas of study. Applied Survival Analysis, Second Edition provides a comprehensive and up-to-date introduction to regression modeling for time-to-event data in medical, epidemiological, biostatistical, and other health-related research. This book places a unique emphasis on the practical and contemporary applications of regression modeling rather than the mathematical theory. It offers a clear and accessible presentation of modern modeling techniques supplemented with real-world examples and case studies. Key topics covered include: variable selection, identification of the scale of continuous covariates, the role of interactions in the model, assessment of fit and model assumptions, regression diagnostics, recurrent event models, frailty models, additive models, competing risk models, and missing data. Features of the Second Edition include: Expanded coverage of interactions and the covariate-adjusted survival functions The use of the Worchester Heart Attack Study as the main modeling data set for illustrating discussed concepts and techniques New discussion of variable selection with multivariable fractional polynomials Further exploration of time-varying covariates, complex with examples Additional treatment of the exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic parametric regression models Increased emphasis on interpreting and using results as well as utilizing multiple imputation methods to analyze data with missing values New examples and exercises at the end of each chapter Analyses throughout the text are performed using Stata® Version 9, and an accompanying FTP site contains the data sets used in the book. Applied Survival Analysis, Second Edition is an ideal book for graduate-level courses in biostatistics, statistics, and epidemiologic methods. It also serves as a valuable reference for practitioners and researchers in any health-related field or for professionals in insurance and government.
Category: Mathematics

Department Of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment

Author : Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis
ISBN : 9780309120289
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 50.36 MB
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The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
Category: Political Science

Joint Models For Longitudinal And Time To Event Data

Author : Dimitris Rizopoulos
ISBN : 9781439872864
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 32.37 MB
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In longitudinal studies it is often of interest to investigate how a marker that is repeatedly measured in time is associated with a time to an event of interest, e.g., prostate cancer studies where longitudinal PSA level measurements are collected in conjunction with the time-to-recurrence. Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data: With Applications in R provides a full treatment of random effects joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes that can be utilized to analyze such data. The content is primarily explanatory, focusing on applications of joint modeling, but sufficient mathematical details are provided to facilitate understanding of the key features of these models. All illustrations put forward can be implemented in the R programming language via the freely available package JM written by the author. All the R code used in the book is available at: http://jmr.r-forge.r-project.org/
Category: Mathematics

Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis With Bayesian Networks

Author : Norman Fenton
ISBN : 9781439809112
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 34.32 MB
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Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.
Category: Business & Economics

Applied Survival Analysis

Author : David W. Hosmer, Jr.
ISBN : STANFORD:36105025984183
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 66.33 MB
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A Practical, Up-To-Date Guide To Modern Methods In The Analysis Of Time To Event Data. The rapid proliferation of powerful and affordable statistical software packages over the past decade has inspired the development of an array of valuable new methods for analyzing survival time data. Yet there continues to be a paucity of statistical modeling guides geared to the concerns of health-related researchers who study time to event data. This book helps bridge this important gap in the literature. Applied Survival Analysis is a comprehensive introduction to regression modeling for time to event data used in epidemiological, biostatistical, and other health-related research. Unlike other texts on the subject, it focuses almost exclusively on practical applications rather than mathematical theory and offers clear, accessible presentations of modern modeling techniques supplemented with real-world examples and case studies. While the authors emphasize the proportional hazards model, descriptive methods and parametric models are also considered in some detail. Key topics covered in depth include: * Variable selection. * Identification of the scale of continuous covariates. * The role of interactions in the model. * Interpretation of a fitted model. * Assessment of fit and model assumptions. * Regression diagnostics. * Recurrent event models, frailty models, and additive models. * Commercially available statistical software and getting the most out of it. Applied Survival Analysis is an ideal introduction for graduate students in biostatistics and epidemiology, as well as researchers in health-related fields.
Category: Mathematics

The Econometrics Of Individual Risk

Author : Christian Gourieroux
ISBN : 1400829410
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 28.85 MB
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The individual risks faced by banks, insurers, and marketers are less well understood than aggregate risks such as market-price changes. But the risks incurred or carried by individual people, companies, insurance policies, or credit agreements can be just as devastating as macroevents such as share-price fluctuations. A comprehensive introduction, The Econometrics of Individual Risk is the first book to provide a complete econometric methodology for quantifying and managing this underappreciated but important variety of risk. The book presents a course in the econometric theory of individual risk illustrated by empirical examples. And, unlike other texts, it is focused entirely on solving the actual individual risk problems businesses confront today. Christian Gourieroux and Joann Jasiak emphasize the microeconometric aspect of risk analysis by extensively discussing practical problems such as retail credit scoring, credit card transaction dynamics, and profit maximization in promotional mailing. They address regulatory issues in sections on computing the minimum capital reserve for coverage of potential losses, and on the credit-risk measure CreditVar. The book will interest graduate students in economics, business, finance, and actuarial studies, as well as actuaries and financial analysts.
Category: Business & Economics

Risk Analysis In Theory And Practice

Author : Jean-Paul Chavas
ISBN : 9780080516332
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 20.91 MB
Format : PDF
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The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel
Category: Business & Economics