INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY SIMULATION AND GIBBS SAMPLING WITH R USE R

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Author : Eric A. Suess
ISBN : 9780387402734
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 20.88 MB
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The first seven chapters use R for probability simulation and computation, including random number generation, numerical and Monte Carlo integration, and finding limiting distributions of Markov Chains with both discrete and continuous states. Applications include coverage probabilities of binomial confidence intervals, estimation of disease prevalence from screening tests, parallel redundancy for improved reliability of systems, and various kinds of genetic modeling. These initial chapters can be used for a non-Bayesian course in the simulation of applied probability models and Markov Chains. Chapters 8 through 10 give a brief introduction to Bayesian estimation and illustrate the use of Gibbs samplers to find posterior distributions and interval estimates, including some examples in which traditional methods do not give satisfactory results. WinBUGS software is introduced with a detailed explanation of its interface and examples of its use for Gibbs sampling for Bayesian estimation. No previous experience using R is required. An appendix introduces R, and complete R code is included for almost all computational examples and problems (along with comments and explanations). Noteworthy features of the book are its intuitive approach, presenting ideas with examples from biostatistics, reliability, and other fields; its large number of figures; and its extraordinarily large number of problems (about a third of the pages), ranging from simple drill to presentation of additional topics. Hints and answers are provided for many of the problems. These features make the book ideal for students of statistics at the senior undergraduate and at the beginning graduate levels.

Author : Eric A. Suess
ISBN : 9780387687650
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 46.25 MB
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The first seven chapters use R for probability simulation and computation, including random number generation, numerical and Monte Carlo integration, and finding limiting distributions of Markov Chains with both discrete and continuous states. Applications include coverage probabilities of binomial confidence intervals, estimation of disease prevalence from screening tests, parallel redundancy for improved reliability of systems, and various kinds of genetic modeling. These initial chapters can be used for a non-Bayesian course in the simulation of applied probability models and Markov Chains. Chapters 8 through 10 give a brief introduction to Bayesian estimation and illustrate the use of Gibbs samplers to find posterior distributions and interval estimates, including some examples in which traditional methods do not give satisfactory results. WinBUGS software is introduced with a detailed explanation of its interface and examples of its use for Gibbs sampling for Bayesian estimation. No previous experience using R is required. An appendix introduces R, and complete R code is included for almost all computational examples and problems (along with comments and explanations). Noteworthy features of the book are its intuitive approach, presenting ideas with examples from biostatistics, reliability, and other fields; its large number of figures; and its extraordinarily large number of problems (about a third of the pages), ranging from simple drill to presentation of additional topics. Hints and answers are provided for many of the problems. These features make the book ideal for students of statistics at the senior undergraduate and at the beginning graduate levels.

Author : Christian Robert
ISBN : 9781441915757
Genre : Computers
File Size : 43.52 MB
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This book covers the main tools used in statistical simulation from a programmer’s point of view, explaining the R implementation of each simulation technique and providing the output for better understanding and comparison.

Author : Jim Albert
ISBN : 9780387922980
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 24.18 MB
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There has been dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inference in statistics. Berger (2000) documents the increase in Bayesian activity by the number of published research articles, the number of books,andtheextensivenumberofapplicationsofBayesianarticlesinapplied disciplines such as science and engineering. One reason for the dramatic growth in Bayesian modeling is the availab- ity of computational algorithms to compute the range of integrals that are necessary in a Bayesian posterior analysis. Due to the speed of modern c- puters, it is now possible to use the Bayesian paradigm to ?t very complex models that cannot be ?t by alternative frequentist methods. To ?t Bayesian models, one needs a statistical computing environment. This environment should be such that one can: write short scripts to de?ne a Bayesian model use or write functions to summarize a posterior distribution use functions to simulate from the posterior distribution construct graphs to illustrate the posterior inference An environment that meets these requirements is the R system. R provides a wide range of functions for data manipulation, calculation, and graphical d- plays. Moreover, it includes a well-developed, simple programming language that users can extend by adding new functions. Many such extensions of the language in the form of packages are easily downloadable from the Comp- hensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

Author : Giovanni Petris
ISBN : 9780387772387
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 70.6 MB
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State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.

Author : W.R. Gilks
ISBN : 0412055511
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 85.98 MB
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In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France, researchers map a rare disease with relatively little variation. Each of these studies applied Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to produce more accurate and inclusive results. General state-space Markov chain theory has seen several developments that have made it both more accessible and more powerful to the general statistician. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice introduces MCMC methods and their applications, providing some theoretical background as well. The authors are researchers who have made key contributions in the recent development of MCMC methodology and its application. Considering the broad audience, the editors emphasize practice rather than theory, keeping the technical content to a minimum. The examples range from the simplest application, Gibbs sampling, to more complex applications. The first chapter contains enough information to allow the reader to start applying MCMC in a basic way. The following chapters cover main issues, important concepts and results, techniques for implementing MCMC, improving its performance, assessing model adequacy, choosing between models, and applications and their domains. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice is a thorough, clear introduction to the methodology and applications of this simple idea with enormous potential. It shows the importance of MCMC in real applications, such as archaeology, astronomy, biostatistics, genetics, epidemiology, and image analysis, and provides an excellent base for MCMC to be applied to other fields as well.

Author : Richard McElreath
ISBN : 9781315362618
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 51.37 MB
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Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Author : Michael J. Crawley
ISBN : 9781118448960
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 33.68 MB
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Hugely successful and popular text presenting an extensive and comprehensive guide for all R users The R language is recognized as one of the most powerful and flexible statistical software packages, enabling users to apply many statistical techniques that would be impossible without such software to help implement such large data sets. R has become an essential tool for understanding and carrying out research. This edition: Features full colour text and extensive graphics throughout. Introduces a clear structure with numbered section headings to help readers locate information more efficiently. Looks at the evolution of R over the past five years. Features a new chapter on Bayesian Analysis and Meta-Analysis. Presents a fully revised and updated bibliography and reference section. Is supported by an accompanying website allowing examples from the text to be run by the user. Praise for the first edition: ‘…if you are an R user or wannabe R user, this text is the one that should be on your shelf. The breadth of topics covered is unsurpassed when it comes to texts on data analysis in R.’ (The American Statistician, August 2008) ‘The High-level software language of R is setting standards in quantitative analysis. And now anybody can get to grips with it thanks to The R Book…’ (Professional Pensions, July 2007)

Author : Jim Albert
ISBN : 9781461413653
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 23.48 MB
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R by Example is an example-based introduction to the statistical computing environment that does not assume any previous familiarity with R or other software packages. R functions are presented in the context of interesting applications with real data. The purpose of this book is to illustrate a range of statistical and probability computations using R for people who are learning, teaching, or using statistics. Specifically, this book is written for users who have covered at least the equivalent of (or are currently studying) undergraduate level calculus-based courses in statistics. These users are learning or applying exploratory and inferential methods for analyzing data and this book is intended to be a useful resource for learning how to implement these procedures in R.