INTERPRETING PROBABILITY CONTROVERSIES AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY CAMBRIDGE STUDIES IN PROBABILITY INDUCTION AND DECISION THEORY

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Interpreting Probability

Author : David Howie
ISBN : 1139434373
Genre : Science
File Size : 46.80 MB
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The term probability can be used in two main senses. In the frequency interpretation it is a limiting ratio in a sequence of repeatable events. In the Bayesian view, probability is a mental construct representing uncertainty. This 2002 book is about these two types of probability and investigates how, despite being adopted by scientists and statisticians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Bayesianism was discredited as a theory of scientific inference during the 1920s and 1930s. Through the examination of a dispute between two British scientists, the author argues that a choice between the two interpretations is not forced by pure logic or the mathematics of the situation, but depends on the experiences and aims of the individuals involved. The book should be of interest to students and scientists interested in statistics and probability theories and to general readers with an interest in the history, sociology and philosophy of science.
Category: Science

War And Chance

Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
ISBN : 9780190938048
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 42.91 MB
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Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Category: Political Science

Forthcoming Books

Author : R.R. Bowker Company. Department of Bibliography
ISBN : 00158119
Genre :
File Size : 68.56 MB
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Books In Print

Author : R.R. Bowker Company
ISBN : UOM:39015054035236
Genre : American literature
File Size : 35.11 MB
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Books in print is the major source of information on books currently published and in print in the United States. The database provides the record of forthcoming books, books in-print, and books out-of-print.
Category: American literature

Nuncius

Author :
ISBN : STANFORD:36105121711589
Genre : Science
File Size : 28.69 MB
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Annali di storia della scienza.
Category: Science

Historical Abstracts

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015073568696
Genre : History, Modern
File Size : 75.56 MB
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Category: History, Modern

Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists

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ISBN :
Genre :
File Size : 90.94 MB
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The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
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Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists

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ISBN :
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File Size : 32.20 MB
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The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
Category: