BAYESIAN METHODS FOR HACKERS PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING AND BAYESIAN INFERENCE ADDISON WESLEY DATA ANALYTICS

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Bayesian Methods For Hackers

Author : Cameron Davidson-Pilon
ISBN : 9780133902921
Genre : Computers
File Size : 75.14 MB
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Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.
Category: Computers

Bayesian Methods For Hackers

Author : Cameron Davidson-Pilon
ISBN : 0133902838
Genre : Computers
File Size : 29.49 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation Not Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice freeing you to get results using computing power. "Bayesian Methods for Hackers" illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you ve mastered these techniques, you ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes Learning the Bayesian state of mind and its practical implications Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses Building and debugging models with PyMC Testing your model s goodness of fit Opening the black box of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works Leveraging the power of the Law of Large Numbers Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning Using loss functions to measure an estimate s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size Overcoming the exploration vs. exploitation dilemma: deciding when pretty good is good enough Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing Solving data science problems that rely on mountains of data"
Category: Computers

Bayesian Methods For Hackers

Author : Cameron Davidson-Pilon
ISBN : 0133902919
Genre : Bayesian statistical decision theory
File Size : 76.98 MB
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Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory

Bayesian Programming

Author : Pierre Bessiere
ISBN : 9781439880333
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 20.72 MB
Format : PDF
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Probability as an Alternative to Boolean Logic While logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain Data Emphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean logic, Bayesian Programming covers new methods to build probabilistic programs for real-world applications. Written by the team who designed and implemented an efficient probabilistic inference engine to interpret Bayesian programs, the book offers many Python examples that are also available on a supplementary website together with an interpreter that allows readers to experiment with this new approach to programming. Principles and Modeling Only requiring a basic foundation in mathematics, the first two parts of the book present a new methodology for building subjective probabilistic models. The authors introduce the principles of Bayesian programming and discuss good practices for probabilistic modeling. Numerous simple examples highlight the application of Bayesian modeling in different fields. Formalism and Algorithms The third part synthesizes existing work on Bayesian inference algorithms since an efficient Bayesian inference engine is needed to automate the probabilistic calculus in Bayesian programs. Many bibliographic references are included for readers who would like more details on the formalism of Bayesian programming, the main probabilistic models, general purpose algorithms for Bayesian inference, and learning problems. FAQs Along with a glossary, the fourth part contains answers to frequently asked questions. The authors compare Bayesian programming and possibility theories, discuss the computational complexity of Bayesian inference, cover the irreducibility of incompleteness, and address the subjectivist versus objectivist epistemology of probability. The First Steps toward a Bayesian Computer A new modeling methodology, new inference algorithms, new programming languages, and new hardware are all needed to create a complete Bayesian computing framework. Focusing on the methodology and algorithms, this book describes the first steps toward reaching that goal. It encourages readers to explore emerging areas, such as bio-inspired computing, and develop new programming languages and hardware architectures.
Category: Business & Economics

Bayesian Analysis With Python

Author : Osvaldo Martin
ISBN : 9781785889851
Genre : Computers
File Size : 50.34 MB
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Unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian framework About This Book Simplify the Bayes process for solving complex statistical problems using Python; Tutorial guide that will take the you through the journey of Bayesian analysis with the help of sample problems and practice exercises; Learn how and when to use Bayesian analysis in your applications with this guide. Who This Book Is For Students, researchers and data scientists who wish to learn Bayesian data analysis with Python and implement probabilistic models in their day to day projects. Programming experience with Python is essential. No previous statistical knowledge is assumed. What You Will Learn Understand the essentials Bayesian concepts from a practical point of view Learn how to build probabilistic models using the Python library PyMC3 Acquire the skills to sanity-check your models and modify them if necessary Add structure to your models and get the advantages of hierarchical models Find out how different models can be used to answer different data analysis questions When in doubt, learn to choose between alternative models. Predict continuous target outcomes using regression analysis or assign classes using logistic and softmax regression. Learn how to think probabilistically and unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian framework In Detail The purpose of this book is to teach the main concepts of Bayesian data analysis. We will learn how to effectively use PyMC3, a Python library for probabilistic programming, to perform Bayesian parameter estimation, to check models and validate them. This book begins presenting the key concepts of the Bayesian framework and the main advantages of this approach from a practical point of view. Moving on, we will explore the power and flexibility of generalized linear models and how to adapt them to a wide array of problems, including regression and classification. We will also look into mixture models and clustering data, and we will finish with advanced topics like non-parametrics models and Gaussian processes. With the help of Python and PyMC3 you will learn to implement, check and expand Bayesian models to solve data analysis problems. Style and approach Bayes algorithms are widely used in statistics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data mining. This will be a practical guide allowing the readers to use Bayesian methods for statistical modelling and analysis using Python.
Category: Computers

Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods

Author : Peter D. Congdon
ISBN : 1584887214
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 43.74 MB
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The use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimating hierarchical models involves complex data structures and is often described as a revolutionary development. An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Emphasizing computational issues, the book provides examples of the following application settings: meta-analysis, data structured in space or time, multilevel and longitudinal data, multivariate data, nonlinear regression, and survival time data. For the worked examples, the text mainly employs the WinBUGS package, allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. It also incorporates BayesX code, which is particularly useful in nonlinear regression. To demonstrate MCMC sampling from first principles, the author includes worked examples using the R package. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book focuses on the practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. It also discusses several issues that arise when applying Bayesian techniques in hierarchical and random effects models.
Category: Mathematics

Building Probabilistic Graphical Models With Python

Author : Kiran R Karkera
ISBN : 9781783289011
Genre : Computers
File Size : 86.93 MB
Format : PDF
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This is a short, practical guide that allows data scientists to understand the concepts of Graphical models and enables them to try them out using small Python code snippets, without being too mathematically complicated. If you are a data scientist who knows about machine learning and want to enhance your knowledge of graphical models, such as Bayes network, in order to use them to solve real-world problems using Python libraries, this book is for you.This book is intended for those who have some Python and machine learning experience, or are exploring the machine learning field.
Category: Computers

Applied Multivariate Analysis

Author : S. James Press
ISBN : 9780486442365
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 82.28 MB
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Includes practical elements of matrix theory, continuous multivariate distributions and basic multivariate statistics in the normal distribution; regression and the analysis of variance; factor analysis and latent structure analysis; canonical correlations; stable portfolio analysis; classifications and discrimination models; control in the multivariate linear model; and structuring multivariate populations. 1982 edition.
Category: Mathematics

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Author : Avi Pfeffer
ISBN : 1617292338
Genre : Computers
File Size : 54.21 MB
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Summary Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In it, you'll learn how to use the PP paradigm to model application domains and then express those probabilistic models in code. Although PP can seem abstract, in this book you'll immediately work on practical examples, like using the Figaro language to build a spam filter and applying Bayesian and Markov networks, to diagnose computer system data problems and recover digital images. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the Technology The data you accumulate about your customers, products, and website users can help you not only to interpret your past, it can also help you predict your future! Probabilistic programming uses code to draw probabilistic inferences from data. By applying specialized algorithms, your programs assign degrees of probability to conclusions. This means you can forecast future events like sales trends, computer system failures, experimental outcomes, and many other critical concerns. About the Book Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In this book, you’ll immediately work on practical examples like building a spam filter, diagnosing computer system data problems, and recovering digital images. You’ll discover probabilistic inference, where algorithms help make extended predictions about issues like social media usage. Along the way, you’ll learn to use functional-style programming for text analysis, object-oriented models to predict social phenomena like the spread of tweets, and open universe models to gauge real-life social media usage. The book also has chapters on how probabilistic models can help in decision making and modeling of dynamic systems. What's Inside Introduction to probabilistic modeling Writing probabilistic programs in Figaro Building Bayesian networks Predicting product lifecycles Decision-making algorithms About the Reader This book assumes no prior exposure to probabilistic programming. Knowledge of Scala is helpful. About the Author Avi Pfeffer is the principal developer of the Figaro language for probabilistic programming. Table of Contents PART 1 INTRODUCING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING AND FIGARO Probabilistic programming in a nutshell A quick Figaro tutorial Creating a probabilistic programming application PART 2 WRITING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMS Probabilistic models and probabilistic programs Modeling dependencies with Bayesian and Markov networks Using Scala and Figaro collections to build up models Object-oriented probabilistic modeling Modeling dynamic systems PART 3 INFERENCE The three rules of probabilistic inference Factored inference algorithms Sampling algorithms Solving other inference tasks Dynamic reasoning and parameter learning
Category: Computers

Learning From Data

Author : Vladimir Cherkassky
ISBN : 0470140518
Genre : Computers
File Size : 77.47 MB
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An interdisciplinary framework for learning methodologies—covering statistics, neural networks, and fuzzy logic, this book provides a unified treatment of the principles and methods for learning dependencies from data. It establishes a general conceptual framework in which various learning methods from statistics, neural networks, and fuzzy logic can be applied—showing that a few fundamental principles underlie most new methods being proposed today in statistics, engineering, and computer science. Complete with over one hundred illustrations, case studies, and examples making this an invaluable text.
Category: Computers